[PVC Daily Review] PVC Weak Adjustment, Cost Support Remains Stable

1. Today's Summary

① Domestic PVC production enterprises' ex-factory prices remain stable, with some ethylene-based prices lowered by 50 yuan/ton.

② Qinzhou Huayi has not started operations yet;

IndiaThe discount will be canceled in April, and the price is expected to increase by $35 per ton.

2Spot Overview

Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's cash price for carbide method five types in the East China region is 4920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day.。

The domestic PVC market remains weak with no improvement in fundamentals. Market transactions are lackluster, and the overall atmosphere of major commodity futures is not optimistic. Transactions are mainly made at lower prices. The spot price range for华东地区的电石法五型（库提现汇）is between 4900-5050 CNY/ton, while for the ethylene method, it ranges from 5000-5200 CNY/ton.

3.Spot-Futures Basis

In terms of basis, the PVC basis in East China is in the range of -160 to -280 yuan/ton for the 05 contract.

4.Production Dynamics

Qinzhou Huayi did not drive.。

5. Price ForecastTest

The recent improvement in the PVC supply and demand fundamentals has been insufficient. Upstream PVC production enterprises have limited maintenance efforts, with only new additions from Tianyuan and Salt Lake, while the ethylene method plants in Huasu and Qinzhou are expected to resume, resulting in little change in market supply. Domestic demand remains weak, with just stable demand, and overall growth potential for foreign trade exports is lacking, leading to a continued weakness in both supply and demand fundamentals. Short-term macro expectations and cost support are weak, with the cash price of PVC in the East China market fluctuating weakly between 4,850 and 5,000 yuan/ton for the acetylene method.

6.Related products

Calcium carbide：Recently stabilized, the mainstream trade price in the Wuhai area is 2700 yuan/ton.

EthyleneEthylene prices remain firm, with CFR Northeast Asia at $855 per ton and CFR Southeast Asia at $920 per ton.

7. Data Calendar