[PVC Daily Review] PVC Market Stalemate, Tepid Transactions at Week’s Start

1. Today's Summary

Some domestic PVC manufacturers have lowered their ex-factory prices by 20-50 yuan/ton.

② Ordos Phase II unit shutdown for maintenance.

3. The pre-sale quotation for PVC shipments in the Asian region for September is expected to be announced next week.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's spot cash pick-up price for carbide-based PVC type 5 in East China is 4,890 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market continued to fluctuate within a weak range. PVC supply remained high throughout the week, with limited new maintenance activities. End-market demand was stable, with transactions mainly occurring on price dips during intraday trading. In East China, the price for calcium carbide-based Type V PVC cash delivery was between 4,850 and 4,950 yuan/ton, while ethylene-based PVC held steady at 4,900 to 5,150 yuan/ton.

3、 Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Major Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

From the perspective of basis, the PVC basis for the September contract in the East China region is in the range of -60/-180, while the January contract is in the range of -200/-290, with some sources showing weaker prices.

4、 Production Status

Table 3   PVC Inspection and Maintenance Device Overview Table

The Formosa Plastics Mailiao complex in Taiwan is scheduled for maintenance starting on August 16 and will resume operations in early September. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison Chart of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Source of data: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5、Price prediction

This week, the scale of new maintenance by domestic PVC manufacturers is limited. As last week's maintenance companies reach full capacity, weekly production and operational rates continue to increase, adding to the market supply pressure. Domestic and international demand remains stable, and industry inventory is likely to continue its growth trend. The market costs have stabilized this week, providing strong support at the bottom. In the short term, there are no industry policy disruptions expected, and the forecast is for spot market prices to fluctuate weakly. In the East China region, the price for calcium carbide-based Type 5 PVC is expected to be in the range of 4,800-4,900 yuan/ton for cash and carry.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ：The domestic calcium carbide market remained stable over the weekend. Influenced by increased exports, the mainstream trade price in the Wuhai area is 2,350 yuan per ton. 。

Ethylene ：Asia Ethylene Market CFR Northeast Asia 820 USD/ton CFR Southeast Asia 830 USD/ton, stable in the short term 。

7、Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview