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【PP Morning Update】Cost support strengthens, polypropylene market expected to remain range-bound today

Longzhong 2025-04-01 08:33:15

One, Focus Areas

1 、 3/31: The United States indicated that it does not rule out the option of taking military action against Iran, and the market is concerned about the enhanced potential supply risks, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEXCrude oil futuresThe May contract for WTI crude oil increased by $2.12 to $71.48 per barrel, representing a growth of 3.06%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures contract for May rose by $1.11 to $74.74 per barrel, representing a growth of 1.51%. The main contract for China's INE crude oil futures (May 2505) fell by 4.3 to 537.4 yuan per barrel, but rose by 16.5 to 553.9 yuan per barrel during the night session.

2 、 Acrylic FOB Korea is $800/ton, CFR China is $825/ton.

3 In March 2025, China's total polypropylene production reached 33.227 million tons, an increase of 3.366 million tons compared to 29.861 million tons in February, with a month-on-month increase of 11.27%.

4、 3/31 domestic PP Maintenance Device Change Details: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 450,000 tons/year PP unit has resumed operation. Langang Petrochemical's 110,000 tons/year PP unit has restarted. Yangzi Petrochemical's Line A (100,000 tons/year) PP unit has been shut down for maintenance.

Core logic: Enhanced cost support, increased recent maintenance, and eased supply pressure.

II. Price List Form

product	Category	3 June 28th	3 May 31st	Price Change Percentage	unit
Crude oil	NYMEX	69.36	71.48	+2.12	USD/BBL
Crude oil	ICE Pour oil	73.63	74.74	+1.11	USD/barrel
Propylene	Domestic propylene	6675	6650	-25	Yuan per ton
Methanol	Domestic methanol	2510	2485	-25	yuan/ton
PP main futures contract	Closing Price	7339	7313	-26	yuan/ton
Mainstream price of wire drawing	Zibo	7295	7295	0	yuan/ton
	Ningbo	7369	7354	-15	Yuan/ton
	Guangzhou	7428	7426	-2	Yuan/ton
Related Products	PP powder	7200	7150	-50	Yuan/ton
Related Products	PE	8068	8065	-3	yuan/ton
Note: Translate the above content from Chinese to English and output the translation result directly without any explanation
1 The above RMB prices are all inclusive of tax at the current exchange rate.
2 The two-period price refers to the point-in-time prices from the two previous business weeks before this week, not the weekly average price.
3 The涨跌幅is the环比change幅度.

Three, Market Outlook

International crude oil prices have risen, enhancing cost support. Recently, there has been a concentrated maintenance of polypropylene facilities, coupled with no new capacity coming online, which has somewhat alleviated supply pressure. Under the constraint of overseas tariff policies, the demand for downstream product orders is cautious, and market sentiment is wary. It is expected that the polypropylene market will stabilize within a range today, with the mainstream price for drawing in East China being 7,280-7,450 yuan/ton.

IV. Data Calendar

Data Project	Release Date	Last period data	This period's trend is expected	Unit
PP Total inventory	Wednesday 16:30 PM	85.86	↓	Ten thousand tons
PP Production enterprise capacity utilization rate	Thursday 16:30PM	76.43%	↓	%
PP Weekly maintenance impact amount	Thursday 4:30 PM	15.612	↓	Ten thousand tons
Domestic PP enterprise total production	Thursday 4:30 PM	73.2	↓	Ten thousand tons
Profit of oil-making PP enterprises	Thursday 16:30PM	-426.21	↓	yuan/ton
Profit of coal-to-PP enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	896	↑	Yuan/ton
PDH PP enterprise profit	Thursday 16:30 PM	-858.14	↓	Yuan/ton
PP Import profit	Thursday 16:30 PM	-324.83	↑	Yuan/ton
PP Export Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	36.15	↑	USD/ton
1 、↓↑ considered as significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with price changes exceeding 3% 2 ↗↘ is considered as a narrow range fluctuation, highlighting data with price changes within 0-3%.

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【PP Morning Update】Cost support strengthens, polypropylene market expected to remain range-bound today

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