[PP Daily Review] Market Trading Generally Quiet, Polypropylene Prices Fluctuate and Consolidate

1. Today's Summary

①, Sinopec Central China's PP partial pricing adjustment: Changling's yarn price is reduced by 200 yuan to 6600 yuan/ton, injection molding is reduced by 100 yuan, M45 to 6600 yuan/ton, Zhongyuan pipe material is reduced by 50 yuan to 7350 yuan/ton; Luoyang's MN70/MN150 is reduced by 50 yuan, MN150 to 7850 yuan/ton.

Today, the domestic polypropylene shutdown impact has decreased by 0.51% compared to yesterday, reaching 19.40%. The daily production share of fiber has increased by 2.01% from yesterday to 26.89%, while the daily production share of low melt co-polymer has risen by 0.62% to 8.84%.

③、（20251010-1016） The supply-demand balance in this period has shifted from surplus to tight balance, but the support for market sentiment is limited. In the next period, the supply-demand balance is expected to turn to a slight surplus due to increased supply, which is anticipated to have a negative impact on prices.

2. Spot Overview

Based on the East China region, today's polypropylene wire drawing price closed at 6,554 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from yesterday. The national average price for wire drawing has decreased by 3 yuan/ton, down 0.05% from yesterday, in line with the morning expectations.

Futures fluctuated within a narrow range today, with market quotations in the morning remaining stable with some fluctuations. The supportive effect of expectations from the Fourth Plenary Session has weakened, reducing its driving force. Price support has returned to the demand side, as downstream enterprises continue to purchase based on immediate needs, and market traders mainly follow the trend. As of noon, the mainstream price for drawn wire in East China is between 6500 and 6600 yuan/ton, with room for negotiation in the actual transaction.

Figure 1 Domestic Polypropylene Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 2 Domestic Polypropylene Price Trend by Region (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

3. Basis between futures and spot prices

From the perspective of basis, the polypropylene basis in the East China region is -53 yuan/ton today, down 27 yuan/ton compared to last week; the basis in the North China region is -78 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from last week.

Figure 3 Basis Trend in North China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 4: Basis Trends in East China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

4. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene increased from 74.6% yesterday to 75.3%, an increase of 0.70% compared to yesterday. The profit of PP decreased by 26.34 yuan/ton from yesterday to -273.92 yuan/ton.

Figure 5 Trend of Domestic Polypropylene Capacity Utilization Rate	Figure 6 Domestic Polypropylene Profit and Price Trend Chart (Unit: Yuan/Ton)
Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5 Market sentiment

The "15th Five-Year Plan" boosts market confidence, but the basic supply and demand situation remains unchanged. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand, and demand support is still insufficient, while upstream inventories are high, prompting active destocking.

6 Price prediction

The "15th Five-Year Plan" meeting policy is about to be announced, and market expectations are high, boosting market sentiment. Upstream maintenance is at a high level, slightly reducing pressure on the supply side. However, downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about production, resulting in slow raw material consumption and a lack of strong upward momentum for prices. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range tomorrow, around 6500-6650 yuan/ton.

7. Related Product Information

Table 2 Summary of Prices for Polypropylene-Related Products (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information

8. Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polypropylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data source: Longzhong Information