[PET Weekly Review]: Narrow Decline

This week Market Focus:

Production: Capacity utilization rate is 70.89%.

Raw material: PTA industry openingThe work rate is 75.01%.

2. Market Analysis

During this period (August 8 to August 14, 2025), the price of polyester bottle chips experienced a slight decline. On Thursday, August 14, the spot price of water bottle-grade polyester chips in the East China market was 5,890 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week, a decrease of 0.84%. This period, East China... The polyester bottle chip market fluctuated weakly, with prices ranging between 5,830 and 5,980 yuan/ton. 。 At the beginning of the week, the repair of polyester raw material units and macroeconomic favorable factors boosted cost trends. However, as the macro benefits gradually fade, buying interest in the polyester bottle chip market remains lukewarm. Downstream users and traders mostly make small rigid purchases at low prices. Fortunately, the short-term tight supply of some sources supports the short-term trend of the polyester bottle chip market, resulting in a slight decline in polyester bottle chip prices within a narrow range.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1) During this trading cycle (20250808-0814), the production volume of polyester bottle chips was 322,700 tons, remaining flat compared to the previous period.

2) Within this transaction cycle ( 20250808-0814 According to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the average weekly profit of polyester bottle chips was -218.5 yuan/ton, down 11.75 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average polymerization cost was 5,522.5 yuan/ton, down 6.25 yuan/ton or 0.11% compared with last week.

4. Future Forecast:

Supply Side: There are no plant changes for the time being, and supply remains stable.

Demand side: During the peak demand season, the downstream soft drink industry operates steadily in the 85-95% range, oil plant operations may slightly decline to around 62%, and the PET sheet industry operates in the 65-75% range.

Cost aspect: Crude oil is expected to decline, the main raw material.PTA supply is expected to increase, and considering cost pressure, polyester cost is expected to remain weak.

Forecast for next week: With weakening support from raw materials and downstream maintaining just-in-time replenishment, the polyester bottle chip market in East China is expected to fluctuate weakly. The spot price of water bottle grade is expected to be around 5,800-5,980 RMB/ton.