This week's fluctuations in polyethylene ex-factory prices.

This week, the ex-factory prices of polyethylene varied, with changes ranging from an increase or decrease of 30 to 200 yuan/ton. By type, the ex-factory prices of HDPE varied, with changes between 50 and 200 yuan/ton; the ex-factory prices of LDPE decreased, with a range of 100 to 200 yuan/ton; the ex-factory prices of LLDPE mainly declined, with a range of 30 to 150 yuan/ton. Notably, in the northwest region, prices increased due to factors such as equipment maintenance.

2. Review of the polyethylene market this week

This week, the domestic polyethylene spot market prices showed mixed trends, fluctuating between a decrease of 30 to an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The polyethylene market experienced some price increases due to equipment maintenance and product conversion, which led to a slight tightening of supply for certain HDPE varieties. However, overall market demand remains limited, and end users show significant resistance to high-priced resources, which restricts further price increases. At the same time, new production capacity is gradually being released, leading to a bearish market sentiment. Traders are maintaining an active selling strategy, but transactions remain weak. Currently, the mainstream price of oil-based linear low-density polyethylene in North China is 7,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week; in East China, the price is 8,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; and in South China, the price is 8,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week.

3. Polyethylene Market Outlook

Looking at the raw material trends for next week, it is expected that the cost support from oil will weaken, while the cost support from coal will remain largely unchanged. It is anticipated that the overall operating rate in the downstream sectors of PE will decrease by 0.02% next week. Although the consumption market has driven some short-term new orders, the gradual delivery of these short-term orders has weakened the support for operating rates, leading to a potential decline. In conjunction with the supply situation, next week will see the restart of maintenance units at Sinopec Zhongke, Liaohe Petrochemical, Wanhua Chemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical, as well as planned maintenance at Qilu Petrochemical, with the estimated impact of maintenance next week being 57,400 tons, a decrease of 47,700 tons from this week’s maintenance volume. The total output is expected to be 649,300 tons next week, an increase of 32,900 tons from this week. In summary, although there will be more maintenance on the supply side next week, new enterprises will gradually resume normal production, while the downstream will maintain just-in-time stocking. It is expected that the price of polyethylene will continue to fluctuate, with a range of 500 to 1,000 yuan per ton.