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[pe morning brief] price expected to fluctuate weakly

Longzhong 2025-09-19 08:48:17

I. Points of Attention

1 Cost side: Market concerns about the poor outlook for the U.S. economy and demand overshadowed the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $0.48/barrel to $63.57, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract fell by $0.51/barrel to $67.44, also a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous period.

2 Current parking device: Currently, the parking devices involve 28 sets of polyethylene units, and there are no new unit maintenance activities.

3 Yesterday's Market Review: On the previous day, the domestic polyethylene market prices mostly fell, by 3-7 yuan/ton. The market has sufficient spot supply, and traders are offering discounts to promote transactions. Downstream buyers are maintaining purchases based on just-in-time needs, and trading volume has not increased.

Core logic: The supply-demand contradiction still exists, and prices fluctuate with a weak trend.

2. Price List Form

Variety

Category

2025/9/17

2025/9/18

Change in value

Price Change Percentage

HDPE

Low-pressure film material

8028  

8022

-6  

-0.07%

HDPE

Low-pressure low-melting injection molding plastic

7488

7485

-3

-0.04%

HDPE

Low-pressure wire drawing material

7906

7902

-4

-0.05%

HDPE

Low-pressure small hollow material

7538

7539

1

0.01%

LDPE

High-pressure film material

9641

9634

-7

-0.07%

LLDPE

Linear Melt Index 2 Film Material

7416

7410

-6

-0.08%

Data Source: Longzhong Information

3. Market Outlook

Recently, with the startup of Shenhua Xinjiang's plant, there is an expectation of increased high-pressure supply, while the supply of other varieties remains stable. Downstream operations are ramping up, but restocking is cautious. Cost support is weakening, supply-demand contradictions persist, and prices are fluctuating weakly.

4. Data Calendar

Data

Publication Date

Previous Data

The trend for the next period is expected.

PE Total Inventory of Manufacturing Enterprises (10,000 tons)

Wednesday 5:00 PM

49.03

PE Social Sample Warehouse Inventory

Tuesday 5:00 PM

-2.45%

PE Weekly Production (ten thousand tons)

Thursday 5:00 PM

63.10

PE Maintenance impact (10,000 tons)

Thursday 5:00 PM

12.52

PE Weekly Capacity Utilization Rate

Thursday 5:00 PM

80.36%

PE Downstream industry capacity utilization rate

Thursday 5:00 PM

0.75%

PE Mindset Survey

Thursday 12:00 AM

-4.45%

Data source: Longzhong Information

Remarks:

1 Consider a large fluctuation as a significant change, highlighting data dimensions with a rise or fall exceeding 3%.

2 Considered as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise or fall within the range of 0-3%.

 

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