[Daily PVC Review] PVC Range Adjustment Amid Moderate Supply and Demand Growth

1. Today's Summary

① Some domestic PVC production enterprises have adjusted their ex-factory prices, with individual changes of around 20 yuan/ton up or down.

② The Zhenyang unit has not yet resumed operation, and the Jinchuan and Beiyuan units are under maintenance. 。

3. Jiajia Xingcheng, Yaowangyue internal test drive.The new unit of Bohai Chemical Development is expected to increase load and start mass production by the end of the month. 。

2 Spot Overview

Table 1 Domestic PVC Spot Price Summary (Yuan/Ton)

Based on the East China Changzhou market as a benchmark, the spot cash warehouse delivery price of carbide-grade PVC Type 5 in East China today is 4680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market remains in a small range of fluctuations. The macro expectations are not favorable, and the basic supply side maintains a steady growth trend. The domestic demand is improving during the peak season, and foreign trade is mainly focused on spot delivery. Industry inventory is increasing slightly. The cost support at the bottom of the PVC industry is strong, and spot prices remain weakly fluctuating. In the East China region, the cash price for carbide-based PVC is between 4,640-4,780 yuan/ton, and for ethylene-based PVC, it is between 4,800-5,000 yuan/ton.

3、  Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

The PVC basis for the January contract in the East China region is in the -100/-200 range, with market transactions remaining sluggish.

4、 Production Dynamics

Table 3   PVC Inspection Equipment List

Yinglite plans partial maintenance in mid-month, and Heilongjiang Haohua plans minor repairs within the month. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Data source: Longzhong Information	Source of data: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

The scale of maintenance for domestic PVC production enterprises is expected to increase month-on-month; however, with the anticipated commissioning of new capacity, market supply remains at a high level. Domestic stocking before the National Day holiday is expected to begin next week. Foreign trade faces uncertainties due to policy impacts, with delivery of goods being the main focus. Industry inventory accumulation is expected to continue slowing down. Upstream raw material prices remain firm, providing strong cost support. Considering the macro market sentiment before the holiday still holds certain expectations, market support is relatively strong. Next week, PVC spot prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the East China region's Caustic Soda Method Type 5 spot inventory quoted between 4,650 and 4,800 yuan per ton.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ：DomesticThe mainstream trade price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is quoted at 2400 yuan/ton, with strong cost support.

Ethylene Ethylene market remains firm. CFR Northeast Asia 840 USD/ton stable, CFR Southeast Asia 840 USD/ton stable 。

7/Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview