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[Daily PVC Review] PVC Range Adjustment Amid Moderate Supply and Demand Growth

Longzhong 2025-09-12 17:48:47

1. Today's Summary

① Some domestic PVC production enterprises have adjusted their ex-factory prices, with individual changes of around 20 yuan/ton up or down.

② The Zhenyang unit has not yet resumed operation, and the Jinchuan and Beiyuan units are under maintenance. 。

3. Jiajia Xingcheng, Yaowangyue internal test drive.The new unit of Bohai Chemical Development is expected to increase load and start mass production by the end of the month. 。

2 Spot Overview

Table 1 Domestic PVC Spot Price Summary (Yuan/Ton)

Based on the East China Changzhou market as a benchmark, the spot cash warehouse delivery price of carbide-grade PVC Type 5 in East China today is 4680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market remains in a small range of fluctuations. The macro expectations are not favorable, and the basic supply side maintains a steady growth trend. The domestic demand is improving during the peak season, and foreign trade is mainly focused on spot delivery. Industry inventory is increasing slightly. The cost support at the bottom of the PVC industry is strong, and spot prices remain weakly fluctuating. In the East China region, the cash price for carbide-based PVC is between 4,640-4,780 yuan/ton, and for ethylene-based PVC, it is between 4,800-5,000 yuan/ton.

Figure 1 Domestic PVC Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 2 Domestic PVC Prices in Various Regions (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

3、 Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

Region	Previous trading day	Today	Rise and Fall	Month-on-month
East China (Contract 01)	-170	-170	0	0%
Data source: Longzhong Information

The PVC basis for the January contract in the East China region is in the -100/-200 range, with market transactions remaining sluggish.

4、 Production Dynamics

Table 3 PVC Inspection Equipment List

Enterprise Name	Process	Capacity: 10,000 tons	Remark	Device change	Recovery Plan
Mount Tai Salt Chemical	Calcium carbide process	10	Parking	September 29, 2022	Pending
Shandong Dongyue	Calcium carbide method	13	Parking	March 25, 2023	Pending
Wuhai Chemical	Calcium carbide method	40	Parking	July 23, 2023	To be determined
Gansu Xinrong	Calcium Carbide Method	20	Parking	July 12, 2023	To be determined
Cangzhou Julong	Ethylene Method	52	Parking	September 20, 2024	To be determined
Suzhou Huasu	Ethylene process	13	Parking	April 26, 2025	To be determined
Haohua Aerospace	Calcium carbide method	20	Mid-September
Gansu Jinchuan	Calcium carbide process	30	Starting shift rotation on September 10.
	Ethylene method	30	Temporary Parking	August 19, 2025
	Carbide method	55	The saint will undergo maintenance for 10 days at the beginning of September.
Taizhou Liancheng	Ethylene method	60	Annual maintenance, to be determined.
Northern Yuan of Shaanxi	Carbide method	110	Rest rotation	September 10, 2025	September 22, 2025

Yinglite plans partial maintenance in mid-month, and Heilongjiang Haohua plans minor repairs within the month. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price

Data source: Longzhong Information	Source of data: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

The scale of maintenance for domestic PVC production enterprises is expected to increase month-on-month; however, with the anticipated commissioning of new capacity, market supply remains at a high level. Domestic stocking before the National Day holiday is expected to begin next week. Foreign trade faces uncertainties due to policy impacts, with delivery of goods being the main focus. Industry inventory accumulation is expected to continue slowing down. Upstream raw material prices remain firm, providing strong cost support. Considering the macro market sentiment before the holiday still holds certain expectations, market support is relatively strong. Next week, PVC spot prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the East China region's Caustic Soda Method Type 5 spot inventory quoted between 4,650 and 4,800 yuan per ton.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ：DomesticThe mainstream trade price of calcium carbide in Wuhai is quoted at 2400 yuan/ton, with strong cost support.

Ethylene Ethylene market remains firm. CFR Northeast Asia 840 USD/ton stable, CFR Southeast Asia 840 USD/ton stable 。

7/Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview

Data	Release Date	Previous Data	Trend Forecast
PVC Utilization Rate	Thursday 5:30 PM	79.94%	↘
PVC Weekly Production	Thursday 5:00 PM	47.88	↘
PVC Production Enterprise Factory Inventory	Thursday 5:00 PM	See data terminal	↗
PVC Third-Party Social Inventory	Thursday 5:00 PM	93.42	↗
PVC Production Enterprises Export Volume	Friday 12:00 AM	See data terminal	↘
Operating Rate of Downstream PVC Product Enterprises	Friday 5:00 PM	See data terminal	↗
Data source: Longzhong Information Remarks: 1. ↓↑ is considered significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with price fluctuations exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ are regarded as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with changes within the range of 0-3%.

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[Daily PVC Review] PVC Range Adjustment Amid Moderate Supply and Demand Growth

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