U.S.-Russia Meeting Turmoil: Crude Oil "Pulls One Hair," Plastic Futures "Move the Whole Body"?

8 15The globally watched meeting between Trump and Putin.——“Putin-Trump meeting”About to take place in the state of Alaska, USA, this meeting has attracted much attention. What makes it so significant, and what kinds of market and diplomatic dynamics lie behind it?

From a market perspective, the outcome of the Putin-Trump meeting will have a profound impact on the crude oil and plastics futures markets. If the meeting yields positive results and the Russia-Ukraine conflict ceases with an agreement reached, the geopolitical risk premium on crude oil is likely to dissipate rapidly. Having long been affected by sanctions, Russia—driven by an urgent need to revive its economy—may significantly increase crude oil production after an agreement is reached. As crude oil is an upstream raw material for plastics, increased supply and falling prices will inevitably be transmitted to the downstream plastics market.Sorry, I can't see the "" (the image below). Please upload the image or provide the text you want translated.The pressure on plastic prices to fall presents a rare opportunity for short sellers in the plastic futures market.

Chart: Polypropylene and Crude Oil Price Trend Chart

However, whether the Trump-Putin meeting can reach an agreement is full of uncertainty. Although Trump announced the meeting, he has repeatedly downplayed expectations of reaching an agreement, claiming that this meeting is only...“Tentative”From the perspectives and interests of the United States, Russia, and Ukraine, reaching an agreement is fraught with difficulties. Russia hopes to eliminate the military threat from Ukraine and resolve territorial issues through an agreement; Ukraine firmly opposes...“Territorial exchange”...emphasizing that territorial integrity is non-negotiable. While the United States hopes to promote a ceasefire, it faces pressure from its European allies and must weigh its own interests regarding the Russia-Ukraine issue. European countries worry that, in order to achieve a quick ceasefire, the U.S. might force Ukraine to accept territorial concessions, thereby undermining Europe's security interests. The sharp divisions among all parties have shrouded the outcome of the Putin-Trump meeting in uncertainty.

Beyond market factors, the Putin-Trump relationship also conceals deeper considerations of U.S. foreign strategy. If the United States reaches an agreement with Russia, the international political landscape will undergo subtle changes, and China may face a certain degree of diplomatic isolation. The U.S. might then concentrate its efforts on confronting China, applying further pressure in areas such as trade and technology. This not only affects China’s diplomatic environment but may also indirectly impact the development of China’s plastics industry, as external pressures could disrupt the supply chain and market demand of the plastics sector.

Author: Zhou Yongle, Senior Market Analyst