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【PP Daily Review】Up 1-8! Cost-side support strengthens, PP market expected to maintain fluctuations.

Longzhong 2025-03-28 17:20:28

1Today's Summary

① Sinopec East China PP early month supplement: Yang F401 up 50 to 7700, 1215C down 50 to 7800, Zhen F08MX down 50 to 7800, M50RH down 50 to 8050. PetroChina South China PP reduction: Guangdong L5E59/7460, L5D98/7470, GH12M/7500, K8003/7620.

Today, the domestic polypropylene production loss decreased by 0.11% to 17.85%. There is no change in domestic PP maintenance facilities today. The daily production proportion of drawing decreased by 2.08% to 25.41%, mainly due to the conversion of the second line of Phase II of Dongguan Juzhengyuan to other products.

③、This week (March 7-14, 2025), the supply-demand gap has significantly narrowed to 40,000 tons, mainly due to an increase in equipment maintenance leading to a noticeable decline in supply, coupled with demand still gradually recovering, resulting in an improvement in the supply-demand gap.。

2Spot Overview

Table 1: Summary of Domestic Polypropylene Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Market	327th	328th	Change Value	rise and fall
Nationwide	7336	7339	+3	0.04%
East China	7361	7369	+8	0.11%
North China	7294	7295	+1	0.01%
South China	7428	7428	0	0.00%
Central China	7279	7279	0	0.00%
Southwest	7297	7297	0	0.00%
Northwest	7188	7188	0	0.00%
Key downstream
BOPP	8350	8350	0	0.00%

Data source: Longzhong Information

Taking the East China region as the benchmark, today the price of polypropylene wire drawing is 7369 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, in line with the morning's expectations.Futures were range-bound with a slightly bullish bias. Today, polypropylene prices remained stable with a minor increase. International oil prices continued to rise, strengthening cost support. Coupled with modest end-of-month sales pressure, spot offers probed higher. Market participants mostly followed the trend in their operations, with actual deals negotiated. By noon, the mainstream price for华东拉丝 (East China LDPE) ranged from 7,300 to 7,450 yuan per ton.。

Figure 1 Domestic Polypropylene Price Trend (Unit: RMB/ton)	Figure 2: Domestic polypropylene price trend chart in various regions (Unit: yuan/ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information	Source: Longzhong Information

3Futures basis

In terms of basis, the basis for the North China region today is -56 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from yesterday; the basis for the East China region is 18 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from yesterday.

Figure 3 Basis Spread Trend in North China (Unit: CNY/ton)	Figure 4 Basis Trend in East China Region (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information	Source: Longzhong Information

4Production Dynamics

PolypropyleneThe capacity utilization rate increased from 75.71% to 76.22%, up 0.51% from yesterday. TodayThere are no changes in the domestic PP maintenance units.

Figure 5 Domestic Polypropylene Capacity Utilization Trend Chart	Figure 6 Domestic polypropylene profit price trend chart (unit: yuan/ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5Market Sentiment

Recently, international oil prices have been continuously rising, enhancing cost support. The futures market is showing firmness, while the spot market has stabilized after declines. Downstream factories maintain their purchases at essential levels, providing limited demand-side support to prices. Trade merchants mostly adopt a cautious approach, offering discounts and selling at prevailing market rates.

6Price Prediction

The short-term international oil prices are on a downward trend, which is expected to weaken support for PP cost. On the demand side, downstream factories are gradually increasing their operational rates, but procurement remains relatively cautious, with a focus on replenishing low essential needs, providing limited support to the market. On the supply side, there are currently no new expansions, and the maintenance of production facilities is still relatively concentrated, so supply pressure is not significant. It is expected that the polypropylene market may maintain fluctuations next week, with mainstream prices for wire drawing in East China at 7300-7450 yuan/ton.。

7Product Information

Table 2: Summary of Polypropylene Related Products Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Market	327th	328th of the month	Price change value	Price change percentage
Shandong propylene	6710	6675	-35	-0.52%
Shandong methanol	2520	2510	-10	-0.40%
Linyi PP powder	7200	7200	0	0.00%

8Data Calendar

Table 3: Overview of Domestic Polypropylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)

data	release date	Last issue data	This period trend forecast	Unit
PPTotal inventory	Wednesday 4:30 PM	85.86	↓	10,000 tons
PPProduction enterprise capacity utilization rate	Thursday at 4:30 PM	76.43%	↓	%
PPWeekly Maintenance Impact量	Thursday at 4:30 PM	15.612	↓	ten thousand tons
Total production of domestic PP enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	73.2	↓	Ten thousand tons
Profit of oil-based PP enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	-426.21	↓	yuan/ton
Profit of Coal-based PP Enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	896	↑	Yuan/ton
PDHProfit of PP manufacturing enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	-858.14	↓	yuan/ton
PPImport profit	Thursday 16:30PM	-324.83	↑	yuan/ton
PPexport profit	Thursday, 16:30 PM	36.15	↑	USD/ton
Data Source: Longzhong Information Group Note: 1↑↓ are considered as significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with price changes exceeding 3%. 2↗↘ are considered as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with price changes within 0-3%.

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【PP Daily Review】Up 1-8! Cost-side support strengthens, PP market expected to maintain fluctuations.

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