[pet daily review] costs fall first then rise, bottle chips operate in a slightly positive fluctuation

1 Today's Summary

①. Factory prices are mostly stable, with some dropping by 20-50. (Unit: yuan/ton)

The capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips reached 72.98% today.

2 Current Spot Overview

Table 1: Domestic Polyester Bottle Chip Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

The spot price of PET bottle-grade polyester chips in the East China region settled at 5880 today, an increase of 30 compared to the previous working day, which did not meet the morning expectations.

Morning crude oilThe decline in raw materials led polyester bottle chip factories to mostly maintain stable quotations, with some dropping by 30. The market focus slightly declined, but with the warming atmosphere of commodities in the afternoon, the market rose, inquiries increased, and the market transaction focus shifted upwards. Today's closing prices are: September: 5800-5860, October: 5820-5870. Unit: yuan/ton.

3. Production Dynamics

Today, the utilization rate of polyester bottle chip production capacity has reached 72.98%. In terms of profit, the price of raw material PTA decreased by 20 to 4,585, MEG price increased by 32 to 4,488, polymerization cost dropped by 15 to 5,424, and polyester bottle chip profit loss was 222 yuan/ton.

4. Market Sentiment

Table 2 Sentiment Expectations of Domestic Polyester Bottle Chip Upstream and Downstream Practitioners (Updated on Monday)

5. Price Prediction

The downstream rigid restocking behavior may provide temporary support for prices, and there are expectations of reduced supply. However, the demand side is generally running weak, and the processing fees for bottle-grade PET have slightly recovered recently. It is expected that next week, polyester bottle-grade PET may fluctuate with raw material prices. The spot price of polyester bottle-grade PET in the East China region is expected to fluctuate between 5,820-5,950 yuan/ton next week. Further attention should be paid to the impact of cost changes on market guidance.

6. Related Product Information

PTA Market: Today's PTA Spot Price -30 To 4585 。 9 The main port delivery offer for January is at a discount of 60-70, with bids at a discount of 70-80, and transactions have occurred. In October, the main port delivery for January traded around a discount of 50. During the day, the absolute price recovered after touching the lower end of the fluctuation range. In the morning, it weakened due to the influence of weak macroeconomic conditions, weak costs, and high supply expectations from external markets. In the afternoon, as domestic sentiment against excessive competition heated up, market prices gradually rebounded. It is expected that spot circulation will remain loose, with downstream buyers making purchases at low levels. The spot basis continues to weaken, and market transactions are driven by just-in-time demand. (Unit: yuan/ton)

MEG market  ： Today, the ethylene glycol market is running strong, with main port inventories remaining low, boosting buying interest. At the opening of the morning session, the spot price in Zhangjiagang opened low around 4475. During the session, active buying led to a price increase, reaching above 4500 in the afternoon. At the close of the afternoon session, spot prices were negotiated in the 4491-4495 range. The spot basis strengthened significantly due to the current limited supply, jumping to open around 01+140 in the morning and continuing to operate in the 01+135 to 01+140 range. The South China market performed generally, with downstream purchasing remaining slow and trading not showing significant improvement.

7. Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polyester Bottle Chip Data (Unit: 10,000 tons, %)