Global Ethylene Supply and Demand Structure in Transition, Cyclical Turning Point May Emerge?

Ethylene is the most important raw material in basic chemical industry, and there are three main production processes.

Steam cracking of naphtha, which is also the most traditional production process, produces ethylene by high-temperature cracking of naphtha.

Ethane cracking to produce ethylene has the highest yield and the fewest by-products. The advancement of shale gas technology in North America has driven the rapid development of this process.

/Methanol-to-olefins is a process that uses coal or methanol as raw materials to produce olefins through catalytic technology.

1. Global Ethylene Production Capacity and Regional Distribution

2022In [year], China became the world's largest ethylene producer.

2022The global total ethylene production capacity in the year reached2.18 /Year, compared to2010The annual growth exceeded the country.50%。

12The incremental amount in our country that year was as high as4933 /Year, accounting for global22.7%The United States has grown.4330 /Year, Middle East new addition350010,000 tons, newly added in Europe2446ten thousand tons.

The global industrial focus is beginning to shift eastward.2010 Proportion of Production Capacity in Asia This Year33%，2022was promoted to ... in that year42%, North America maintains23%Not much has changed, Europe from20%lowered to12%。

China's share of Asia's production capacity exceeds50%。

Future capacity is still increasing.2023–2030The global new ethylene production capacity per year is approximately7249.5ten thousand tons, accounting for ...% in China58%。

2030In [year], the estimated production capacity in China is8387 /

2025After the new year, the production capacity in North America will increase by approximately.470The new capacity in the Middle East is limited, and in Europe, due to high costs, the existing stock will continue to be optimized.

2. Lightweighting of Raw Material Structure and Regional Differences

The feedstock for global ethylene production is becoming lighter and more diversified, with an increasing proportion of light hydrocarbons such as ethane, while the dominant position of naphtha is continuously weakening.

2010 2022 12During the years, the process proportion using naphtha as raw material, from62.8%Lowered to47.6%。

Ethane route proportion, from17.3%increased to21.4%。

/Proportion of methanol-to-olefins route, from0.1%Promote to8.4%。

LPGRoute proportion, from13.8% 16.8%。

Currently, North America and the Middle East primarily rely on the ethane route, with ethane accounting for more than... in North America.80%，。

Europe, due to its energy crisis, is also accelerating the transition of raw materials, with some facilities switching to using imported ethane from the United States as a raw material.

Asia (especially our country), due to limited resources, is mainly based on naphtha, accounting for68.36% /Methanol to olefins approximately14.53%light hydrocarbons are cracked into17.10%。

In terms of economics, the ethylene yield from ethane cracking is as high as77.73%, which is much higher than the naphtha process33.62%The unit production cost should be low.2000–2500 /The tonnage is also the core competitive advantage of this process.

3. Demand Growth and Trade Patterns

The global demand for ethylene continues to grow steadily, but regional differentiation has become quite evident.

2010 2023Global annual ethylene demand, with an average annual growth rate.3.3%。

2023Annual demand is1.96hundred million tons, accounting for Asian consumption demand45%, North America accounts for8%Europe accounts for13%。

In terms of downstream product structure, the demand for polyethylene accounts for62%Ethylene glycol accounts for15%，POEPhotovoltaic gradeEVAThe annual growth rate of emerging fields exceeds5%。

In terms of supply and demand structure,2022 2026Global annual ethylene production capacity, average annual increase1000Above ten thousand tons, exceeding the growth in demand, the overall industry operating rate remains at80%Approximately.

2026After the New Year, demand growth is expected to outpace capacity growth.2030The annual demand is expected to reach.2.48hundred million tons.

In global trade, the United States, Europe, and the Middle East are net exporters, while China is the world's largest net importer.2023Annual import of ethylene monomer213Ten thousand tons, net imports of derivatives1987Ten thousand tons, with major import sources including South Korea, Japan, the United States, and others.

4. Different Regional Development Dynamics

European production capacity is being optimized, and raw materials are undergoing transformation.

Affected by high production costs and sluggish downstream demand.2023The average profit of ethylene plants in Europe for the year is112.96 / Tons, before the Russia-Ukraine war.5Annual average1/3。

2022 8Starting from this month, naphtha cracking margins turned negative, and the industry's operating rate dropped to ___.70%–75%。

Europe has begun capacity integration, replacing with low-cost raw materials, and some units have started to be modified to use lower-cost ethane andLPG。

2024 4In [month], ExxonMobil closed its operations in France.42.5 /Ethylene plants are experiencing the most intensive wave of shutdowns in chemical industry history as of [date]. 2025 8 SABICDow, TotalEnergies, etc.21A multinational group has closed or plans to exit more than...40A set of large-scale equipment is expected to...2027Permanently lost by the end of the year460Million-ton ethylene production capacity.

South Korea has also launched an industrial restructuring plan, which will reduce naphtha cracking capacity.25%About100–150 /The ethylene production capacity of the year.

North American capacity expansion is slowing down, and cost advantages are narrowing.

2016 to2020The first wave of ethane-to-ethylene capacity was added in North America in that year.1200Million-ton capacity.

2021 -2023The second wave of ethylene capacity expansion in North America occurred this year.470ten thousand tons, future2028No additional capacity is expected in the coming years.

The production cost of ethylene is approximately 3900-6000 /The tonnage is lower than the naphtha route in Asia. 400 /

Although the production cost of the ethane route is much lower than that of the naphtha route, with a very obvious cost advantage, the global competition for light hydrocarbon resources is also very intense, and the raw material advantage is gradually narrowing.

2030In the years to come, the export market space may be squeezed by the Middle East and Asia.

The Middle East is currently exporting steadily with a clear cost advantage.

The ethylene production capacity in the Middle East is mainly centered in Saudi Arabia.2016Reached by the year3500Around ten thousand tons, relying on government-controlled low-cost ethane, the production cost is the lowest in the world.

2023Annual net export volume reaches5511The above content translates to: "Ten thousand tons, mainly exported to Europe and Southeast Asia."

2025After the new year, the net export volume may increase to5770 Million tons, becoming the largest ethylene export hub in the world.

V. Analysis of the Ethylene Market in China

Production capacity continues to expand, and the structure accelerates optimization.

2023In the year, China's ethylene production capacity reached as high as5112 /Year, accounting for the global total of22.7%Output4681Ten thousand tons, accounting for ...% of the global total.25.3%。

2025The estimated annual production capacity is6338ten thousand tons,2030may exceed in a year8000Ten thousand tons,2024–2030Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)7.6%。

The largest share of newly added capacity is held by private refining and chemical enterprises.2023The capacity share of private refining and chemical enterprises exceeded that year.30%。

The structure of raw materials is becoming more diversified, and the process of light-weighting is accelerating.

China's ethylene feedstocks are also accelerating the shift toward lighter alternatives.2025The annual ethane cracking capacity is expected to be1000Ten thousand tons.

According to online information, the ethylene production capacity of Satellite Petrochemical and Wanhua Chemical uses ethane as the raw material.

In terms of technology, the breakthrough in direct production of olefins from crude oil has achieved a high yield of low-carbon olefins.50%Shortened compared to the traditional process route.30%。

The structural contradiction between supply and demand remains prominent.

2023 Apparent Ethylene Consumption in China This Year4878Ten thousand tons, equivalent consumption6865Ten thousand tons, self-sufficiency rate68.2%。

2024 2015The data for the year is currently unavailable.2024Expected annual growth3.1%around2025The annual growth is expected to be approximately3.9%。

There is an oversupply of bulk general downstream products, such asPVCThe styrene production capacity to consumption ratio exceeds the limit.130%。

High-end products are still heavily dependent on imports.POEAlmost entirely imported, the external dependency of metallocene polyethylene exceeds90%Photovoltaic gradeEVAImport dependence42%The overall self-sufficiency rate of high-end polyolefins is only56.7%。

6. Periodicity Judgment2026Turning point after the new year

2022 2026The annual incremental capacity of ethylene was at... years ago.1000Over 10,000 tons, slightly higher than the increase in demand, industry operating rate80%The industry as a whole is still in the bottom range.

2026After the year, demand growth is expected to potentially outpace capacity, coupled with Europe460Ten thousand tons and South Korea150The permanent exit of ten thousand tons of production capacity and the clearance of global marginal capacity indicate that the cycle is expected to bottom out and rebound.

With the advantage of industrial scale, iterative technology advancements, and diversified raw materials, our country will simultaneously take on the dual roles of "incremental supplier" and "high-end replacer."

Can you translate the above content into English, and directly output the translation without any explanation?2026Breaking through high-end polyolefin technology years ago may determine the height of the next industry boom.