[EVA Morning Alert] Domestic EVA Market Prices Expected to Fluctuate Within a Range

I. Focus Areas

1 [Longzhong] 6/10: U.S.-Iran relations remain unstable, and concerns over supply risks have intensified, pushing international oil prices higher. NYMEX crude oil futures July contract settled at $90.03/bbl, up $1.83/bbl, or +2.07% month-on-month; ICE Brent futures August contract settled at $93.10/bbl, up $1.65/bbl, or +1.80%. China’s INE crude oil futures July 2026 contract fell by 14.3 to 573.1 yuan/bbl, and rose by 11.1 to 584.2 yuan/bbl in night trading.

2 Ethylene: As contract costs are significantly lower than spot prices, some traders may offer goods at slightly lower prices than producers. Mainstream prices are expected to remain generally stable, with the regional price range anticipated at around RMB 7,650–8,100/ton. In USD terms, although there were negotiations at slightly higher prices yesterday, the sustainability of such high prices is limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of around USD 890–970/ton.

3 Vinyl acetate: The domestic acetic acid vinyl market is consolidating within a narrow range. New installations are under debugging, and there are currently no exports. The main production facilities are running smoothly, and production companies are fulfilling orders. The circulating spot inventory in the market is limited. Some large inquiries from downstream buyers are present, but holders are reluctant to sell at low prices, actively pushing up their offers. The traditional terminal market continues at previous levels, and users are purchasing at a steady pace according to their needs, which suppresses high-price transactions. Attention should be paid to the progress of new capacity release and the strength of downstream inquiries. It is expected that the market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term.

Core logic: Recent EVA On the supply side, news about units being started up and shut down has been frequent, but downstream overall demand has improved slowly, with bullish and bearish signals intertwined in the market. In the short term, the market will. Fluctuation Organize and run.

II. Price List

3. Market Outlook

In the short term, EVA The cost side shows weak support, and news of shutdowns and production changes on the supply side will have an impact on future supply, but more importantly, it affects the market sentiment. Orders from downstream factories are unlikely to improve significantly, and the spot market is primarily driven by essential demand. The market is mixed with both bullish and bearish news, and operators are cautious in their trading. It is expected that domestic EVA market prices will primarily fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the recent procurement of downstream film factories and the production schedules of petrochemical plants. The expected prices are: soft materials around 9000-10000 yuan/ton, hard materials around 9000-10000 yuan/ton, and photovoltaic materials near 9500 yuan/ton.