[PBAT Daily Review] Ample Supply And Weak Demand, Market Consolidates In A Narrow Range

1. Today’s Summary

Today, the domestic PBAT spot prices remained stable overall, with mainstream quotes in East and South China steady at 11,550 yuan/ton, and no significant fluctuations in the market.

2. PBAT capacity utilization remained flat at 23.43%. Leading producers maintained stable operating rates, and overall supply remained ample; downstream biodegradable film and bag production saw a slight rebound, but order follow-up was still relatively weak.

3. Raw material trends diverged: BDO and adipic acid remained stable, while PTA fell sharply, leading to weakened overall cost support.

Market bearish sentiment dominates, with slow selling pace and limited new order transactions, resulting in a short-term trend of narrow weak fluctuations.

II. Spot Overview

The domestic PBAT market remained stable but stagnant today, with mainstream prices in East and South China uniformly steady at 11,550 RMB/ton. Production operations were stable, with leading plants maintaining high load output, and market supply relatively ample. High-priced goods faced greater selling resistance, and companies mainly focused on fulfilling old orders, with limited new order growth. Demand remained consistently sluggish; downstream biodegradable product industries operated at average capacity, end-user orders lacked momentum, and only small essential replenishment orders were seen in the market. Biodegradable product companies showed a strong preference for low-priced benchmark purchases, and export orders also slowed down, resulting in overall weak support for raw materials. The raw material PTA experienced a significant decline, further weakening cost support and suppressing market upward expectations.

III. Production Updates

Today's PBAT capacity utilization rate is 23.43%, remaining flat week-on-week. The domestic plant operation pattern is stable, with Wanhua, Huafeng, Hubei Yihua, and Mogao each running one production line, Lanshan Tunhe running two lines, and Zhuhai Kingfa operating three units, while most other enterprises have shut down for maintenance. The overall industry operation remains low and steady. Weekly data forecasts a slight rebound in operation rates and output, with company inventories accumulating simultaneously, gradually increasing pressure on the supply side. This week, the degraded film bag operation rate is 37.4%, up slightly by 0.8 percentage points week-on-week, but demand improvement is limited, making it difficult to offset the pressure from ample supply.

IV. Market Sentiment

Current market sentiment is predominantly bearish. Survey data show that 67% of industry participants are bearish on the outlook, while only 33% expect the market to remain stable, with no bullish sentiment observed. Traders and downstream buyers are cautious in procurement, purchasing only as needed to avoid inventory risk. Overall market operations are biased to the downside, offering limited support to price momentum.

5. Related Products

BDOEast China spot prices remain stable at 7600-7800 yuan/ton. With increasing equipment maintenance and a tightening supply, downstream demand is following suit, and the market is in a.

Sebacic acidMarket prices remain stable, with suppliers showing a strong willingness to maintain prices. Intermediaries are holding firm on their quotes, and after downstream replenishment ends, trading activity has returned to a quiet state.

PTASpot prices fell sharply by 210 yuan/tonne, a decline of 3.36%. Easing geopolitical risks dragged the futures market lower; only small dip-buying restocking for essential demand was seen, and overall trading was average.

VI. Price Forecast

In the short term, the domestic PBAT market will...Narrow-range weak consolidationOn the supply side, plant operations are stable, supply is ample, and inventories have accumulated slightly. On the demand side, the off-season remains weak, orders are subdued, and downstream end-users have stronger bargaining power. A sharp decline in feedstock PTA has weakened cost support. Overall, the market lacks positive drivers, leaving prices with limited upside momentum. In the short term, mainstream PBAT prices are expected to run in the range of RMB 11,300–11,800/tonne, while in the medium term there is still room for a soft downward move.