[ZhuanSu Index] Polyolefins Rise and Fall Amid Macroeconomic Fluctuations

The South China PP Price Index is 7286.68 points, down 26.02 points from last week, a decrease of 0.36%. Among them, raffia dropped 20, fiber dropped 30, copolymer dropped 10, thin-wall dropped 20, and homopolymer dropped 30.

The South China PE price index is at 7897.80 points, up 76.87 points from last week, an increase of 0.98%. Among them, linear increased by 80, low pressure by 50, and high pressure by 80.

The spot price index of polyolefins showed both increases and decreases, and the price spread between PP and PE further widened, indicating market divergence amid weak fundamentals.

On the macro front, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Coupled with the government's further relaxation of property purchase restrictions, market sentiment has been relatively positive. Additionally, recent measures aimed at combating over-competition and stabilizing growth have begun to take effect. While major equipment overhauls are underway in South Korea, expectations are rising domestically for the elimination of outdated petrochemical facilities. This has brought some positive impact at the industrial level, though it remains quite limited. The market is highly focused on the substantive changes these measures may bring to the fundamentals.

In terms of fundamentals, the weak pattern is unlikely to change in the short term. On the supply side, the peak period of maintenance has passed, and with new capacity coming online, output remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream follow-up is slow. Although the off-season has ended, there is still a considerable gap before the peak season. Downstream buyers are mainly making purchases to meet immediate needs and focusing on digesting finished product inventories. In terms of imports and exports, due to the continuous decline in oil prices and the appreciation of the RMB, the import window has opened, leading to a certain increase in imports. Therefore, the overall supply and demand pressure remains significant.

Looking ahead, there are improvements in the macroeconomic and fundamental aspects, but the substantial effects remain to be observed. Continued attention will be paid to developments against involution, as well as changes in the crude oil and coal sectors. The South China PP price index is expected to be between 7250-7400 next week, and the PE price index is expected to be between 7800-8000.