Wolfe Research: Tesla Q3 Deliveries May Exceed Expectations

According to foreign media reports, the American securities research company Wolfe Research recently stated that Tesla's delivery volume in the third quarter of this year may exceed market expectations, potentially reaching 465,000 to 470,000 vehicles. This forecast represents a 22% increase from Tesla's second-quarter sales and is higher than the market's general expectation of 445,000 vehicles. Wolfe Research noted, "Tesla is expected to achieve strong sales growth in the third quarter."

Wolfe Research believes that Tesla's deliveries in the U.S. market will increase, partly because consumers are rushing to purchase before the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit expires. The company is also optimistic about Tesla's deliveries in the Chinese market, noting that Tesla's performance there has exceeded previous expectations. Wolfe Research estimates that Tesla's third-quarter deliveries in China could reach 165,000 to 170,000 units, about 10,000 more than its previous forecast.

Image Source: Tesla

The company pointed out that this forecast number has yet to include the significant contribution from the newly launched Model Y L in the Chinese market. According to Tesla China's store sales staff, since its official launch on August 19, the Model Y L has received an enthusiastic market response, with an average of nearly ten thousand orders per day. Currently, the first batch of orders has been gradually delivered. The Model Y L is positioned as a large six-seat luxury pure electric SUV. Despite its relatively high price, sales personnel indicate that the model, with its more spacious interior and flexible rear seat layout, is very suitable for families with children.

Wolfe Research expects Tesla's third-quarter earnings per share to be between $0.55 and $0.60, higher than the current market consensus of $0.49. Meanwhile, the company forecasts Tesla's automotive business gross margin (excluding regulatory credit revenue) to be approximately 16.5% to 17%.

Wolfe Research also stated that the end of federal electric vehicle tax incentives has led to an accelerated release of electric vehicle demand in the U.S. market, which could make the fourth quarter more challenging for Tesla. However, Wolfe believes that factors such as seasonal demand increases in the Chinese and European markets are likely to provide positive support for Tesla's sales. Additionally, the ramp-up of Model Y L production and the upcoming launch of more affordable models will also help boost Tesla's delivery numbers in the fourth quarter.