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Ushine's IPO Progress: How Much Profit Can Kingfa Sci & Tech Gain?

xclstudy 2025-10-22 19:46:10

On October 21, UFACTORY's IPO counseling institution, CITIC Securities, recently submitted the "Progress Report on Counseling Work (Phase One)." The report indicates that UFACTORY has passed the resolution at the fifth extraordinary shareholders' meeting of 2025 to change its name to "UFACTORY Co., Ltd." and is currently handling the procedures for industrial and commercial registration changes. During the counseling phase, the counseling working group collaborated with UFACTORY's management to evaluate the investment projects funded by the raised capital, aligning them with the company's strategy by considering industry trends, company competitive advantages, and development plans. In the next phase, the counseling work will focus on advancing comprehensive due diligence, covering aspects such as corporate governance, standardized operations, financial information, and business models, while continuously monitoring significant changes in the company.

According to previous information, Yushu Technology completed its IPO counseling filing in July and plans to submit its IPO application between October and December 2025. If progress goes smoothly, it is expected to enter the capital market in the first half of 2026. As its listing process advances, the income expectations of the shareholders have attracted market attention, and the indirect shareholding situation of Jinhua Technology warrants specific analysis.

Before analyzing the revenue, it is necessary to clarify the actual shareholding scale of Kingfa Sci. & Tech. in Unitree Robotics. At the performance briefing on September 19, Kingfa Sci. & Tech. disclosed the company's shareholding in Unitree Robotics.

The company indirectly holds shares in Unitree Robotics through the Jinshi Growth Fund. According to the "Jinshi Growth Fund 2025 Semi-Annual Information Disclosure Report," as of June 30, 2025, the subscribed capital of the Jinshi Growth Fund is 440,963.95 yuan, and the company's subscribed share in the Jinshi Growth Fund is 6.80% (this percentage changes with the actual operational subscribed capital of the fund). Business information shows that the Jinshi Growth Fund holds a 4.77% stake in Unitree Robotics. In summary, the company's penetrative shareholding in Unitree Robotics is 0.32%.

Equity returns depend on the difference between the valuation of Unitree Robotics after its listing and the initial investment cost of Kingfa Sci & Tech. Based on the existing information, the calculation can be conducted from the following dimensions.

1. The valuation reference dimensions for Yushu Technology can currently refer to three types of public information:

After the Series C financing in June 2025, the company's post-investment valuation is 12 billion RMB, as confirmed by the participating investment institutions.

Pre-IPO valuation: According to information on October 21, Unitree Robotics has completed a Pre-IPO financing round with a valuation of $6 billion (approximately 43.2 billion RMB). The funds are intended for the construction of a super factory with an annual production capacity of 10,000 units. The factory is planned to start operations in the second quarter of 2026, with a target output value of 15 billion RMB.

Financial Data and Corresponding Valuation: Public financial data indicates that UTree Technology's revenue in 2024 is projected to be 3.8 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 18%, resulting in an estimated net profit of approximately 684 million yuan. The growth in orders for humanoid robots and the scale of strategic framework agreements in 2025 suggest that net profit could further increase. Referring to the 50-80 times PE valuation level of the A-share robotics industry, and calculating based on the 2024 net profit, its reasonable valuation range is approximately 34.2 to 54.7 billion yuan, which is generally consistent with the valuation range of the Pre-IPO round.

Overall, 40-45 billion yuan can be considered as a reference valuation range for Yushu Technology after its listing.

2. Revenue Scale Estimation and Constraints: Based on a 0.32% shareholding ratio of Kingfa Sci & Tech, combined with different valuation scenarios and initial cost assumptions (assuming the initial investment corresponds to a valuation of 10 billion yuan for Unitree Robotics), the revenue estimation is as follows:

Conservative scenario (valuation of 12 billion RMB): Equity appreciation is approximately (12 - 10) × 0.32% = 0.064 billion RMB.

Neutral scenario (valuation of 43.2 billion yuan): equity appreciation of approximately (432-100) × 0.32% ≈ 106.2 million yuan;

Optimistic scenario (valuation of 54.7 billion yuan): equity appreciation is approximately (54.7 - 1) × 0.32% ≈ 143 million yuan.

It should be noted that the above calculations do not account for fund management fees (typically an annual rate of around 2%), performance sharing (usually around 20% accrued upon exit), and corporate income tax costs, so the actual returns will be lower than the estimated values. Comparing to Jinfak Technology's projected net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.26 billion yuan for 2024 (based on semi-annual report data), even in an optimistic scenario, the proportion of equity appreciation gains to its annual net profit is less than 12%, which has a limited impact on overall performance.

In addition, there are cyclical constraints on realizing returns: As a startup technology company, shareholders of Unitree Robotics are expected to have a lock-up period of 12-36 months. As a professional investment institution, Jinshi Growth Fund's exit strategy needs to consider factors such as the fund's duration and investment portfolio balance. The relevant returns cannot be immediately realized after listing and are expected to be gradually realized after 2027.

From a business association perspective, Golden Hair Technology and Unitree Robotics have a supply chain cooperation relationship. The value of this association needs to be analyzed in conjunction with the business attributes of both parties.

Jinfa Technology's core business covers modified plastics, high-performance materials such as PEEK, which features lightweight properties (reducing component weight by 40%), high strength, and wear resistance. These characteristics meet the material requirements for core components such as joints and bodies in humanoid robots, and can help reduce the overall cost of robots by 30%. Currently, Jinfa Technology has established a special R&D team to develop customized materials based on the product needs of Yushu Technology, and some products have already achieved mass supply.

The dual identity of "material supplier + indirect shareholder" has created a certain level of business synergy: on one hand, the equity relationship facilitates deeper collaboration between the two parties. Jinfa Technology can leverage this relationship to secure material procurement orders from Yushu Technology after mass production—according to Yushu Technology's plans, the material demand from its super factory, expected to be operational in 2026, could bring significant revenue growth to Jinfa Technology. On the other hand, the research and development needs of Yushu Technology's robotic products provide application scenarios for Jinfa Technology's high-performance materials, helping to align its material R&D more closely with market demands. In the first half of 2025, Jinfa Technology reported operating revenue of 31.636 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.50%, with the demand for materials in emerging fields providing certain support for its revenue growth.

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