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U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs Officially Take Effect, Oil Prices Mark Sixth Consecutive Drop, Plastic Futures Fluctuate Narrowly, Weak Volatile Trend Expected Today

Plastmatch 2025-08-08 07:49:32

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

8/7: The bearish sentiment from OPEC+ production increase continues, coupled with the US sanction plans not yet causing significant concern, leading to a six-day consecutive decline in international oil prices. NYMEXCrude Oil FuturesThe September contract fell by $0.47/barrel to $63.88, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73%; ICE Brent crude oil futures October contract fell by $0.46/barrel to $66.43, a month-on-month decrease of 0.69%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2510 increased by 0.4 to 499.9 yuan/barrel, and fell by 6.1 to 493.8 yuan/barrel in the night session.

Future Market Outlook

Oil prices have closed lower for the sixth consecutive day, marking the first occurrence of six straight declines in half a year. During this period, there were significant intraday rebounds, but none altered the downward trend in oil prices.

The most crucial clue in the oil market trading is the increased probability of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The success of the meeting between Putin and Trump next week will be very critical. This is the main theme of the recent oil price movement, overshadowing other complex influencing factors. This event has a complex impact on the crude oil market, disrupting the stability of the market. It can be observed that crude oil futures have significantly declined, Brent spreads continue to weaken, but Middle Eastern oil has clearly benefited from this, showing strong performance and becoming the strongest region recently. Overall, oil prices are further weakening, and after consecutive declines, there is a demand for short-term oversold correction. Before the dust settles, oil prices will remain highly volatile. Pay attention to timing and participate cautiously.

II. Macroeconomic Market Trends

1. Tariff—①Reciprocal tariffs have officially come into effect.1. Trump: Billions of dollars will begin flowing into the United States. 2. EU: The 15% tariff cap will still apply to chip exports to the US. 3. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: There is no disagreement between Japan and the US, meaning no additional 15% tariff will be imposed on goods imported from Japan beyond the existing tariffs.The United States has imposed additional tariffs on the import of one kilogram of gold bars.This could severely impact the world's largest refining center, Switzerland.

2. Federal Reserve — ① Trump nominates Chairman of the White House Council of Economic AdvisersStephen Milam serves as a member of the Federal Reserve Board.The term ends on January 31, 2026. ② It is reported thatWaller has become a leading candidate for the new Fed chairman.3. U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent: The interview process for the Federal Reserve Chairman has begun. 4. Bostic: The July employment report has indeed changed the Federal Reserve's view on employment targets.

3. US-Russia Talks - ① Russian Presidential Aide: Russia and the US are preparing a meeting between the two heads of state, with the goal ofMeeting to be held next week2. Putin: The UAE is one of the appropriate places to meet with Trump and does not mind meeting Zelensky. 3. Trump comments on the Russia-US summit: Putin does not need to agree to meet Zelensky.

4. Policy of Exempting Nursery Education FeesCover all kindergarten children in the senior class.The annual childcare and education subsidy funds to be borne by the central finance will be allocated soon.

The General Administration of Customs: In July, imports and exports totaled 3.91 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.7%. Among them, exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, an increase of 8%; imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%.

3. Plastic Market Trends

Night session chemical products show mixed gains and losses.

The plastics 2509 contract was quoted at 7,309 yuan/ton, up 0.10% from the previous trading day.

The PP2509 contract reported at 7078 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day.

PP2601 contract reported at 7,109 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2509 contract is quoted at 5,014 yuan/ton, down 0.61% compared to the previous trading day.

The styrene 2509 contract is quoted at 7,300 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day.

4. Market Forecast for Today

PE：The price of polyethylene is expected to fluctuate slightly downward. In the short term, although there is decent cost support for polyethylene, the fundamental supply and demand pressure is increasing, intensifying market caution. Prices may fluctuate slightly downward, with a range of 5-50 yuan/ton.

PP：Polypropylene prices are expected to fluctuate mainly at the lower end, with raffia grades hovering around 7000-7050 yuan/ton. As the market lacks new supply and demand variables, it is seeking new guidance from external factors.

pvc：PVC prices are expected to decline within a narrow range, with the spot market fundamentally weak and price expectations slightly easing.

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U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs Officially Take Effect, Oil Prices Mark Sixth Consecutive Drop, Plastic Futures Fluctuate Narrowly, Weak Volatile Trend Expected Today

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