Trump Announces US-Europe Trade Deal! International Oil Prices Fall, Domestic Plastic Futures Main Contract All Down

1. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

7/25: Although market concerns over U.S. tariff issues have eased, some weak economic data has made traders cautious, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures September contract fell $0.87 to $65.16 per barrel, down 1.32% from the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures September contract dropped $0.74 to $68.44 per barrel, down 1.07% from the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2509 rose 4.3 to 508.6 yuan per barrel, but fell 6.7 to 501.9 yuan per barrel during the night session.

Market forecast

Over the past two weeks, we have assessed that the crude oil market is gradually shifting from a previous phase dominated by bulls to a weakening phase within a range. During the oscillating tug-of-war, oil prices have fallen for two consecutive weeks. Although they have not yet broken through the key support level at the lower boundary of the July trading range, the probability of oil prices continuing to trend lower is increasing. At the beginning of August, OPEC+ production cut members will decide on the incremental supply for September. The coming week may present a critical moment for a breakout in oil prices. It is important to guard against downside risks and pay attention to timing.

2. Macroeconomic Developments

1. Tariff—①Trump Announces Trade Agreement Reached Between U.S. and EuropeThe EU will impose a 15% tariff, $600 billion in investment to the US, EU countries will implement zero tariffs on the US, the EU will purchase US military equipment, and will buy US energy products worth $750 billion. However, there are differing statements between the US and the EU on whether the 15% tariff agreement covers pharmaceuticals and steel and aluminum. Von der Leyen stated that the 15% rate is the best result the European Commission could achieve.

② Trump: Considering reaching agreements with three to four other countries.

3. U.S. Secretary of Commerce:The deadline for the tariff increase on August 1 will not be extended.The United States will determine its tariff policy on chips within two weeks.

4. U.S. official:Trump has the authority to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments.。

⑤ The finance minister may hold tariff negotiations with the United States on July 31.

Reports suggest that the US willCanadaAnti-dumping duties on softwood will be imposed, and the tax rate will be announced on August 8.

According to the Financial Times: Prime Minister Starmer will press Trump to lower tariffs on UK steel imports.

2. Trump: (Local time last Thursday)Powell gives the impression of potentially preparing to cut interest rates.Think that Powell will lower interest rates.

3. Sources familiar with the matter saidBOJ officials may consider another rate hike this year.。

4. Source:The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is unlikely to change the existing production increase plan when it meets on Monday.OPEC+ senior officials stated that the JMMC has no authority to decide the production policies of the eight member countries.

5. Middle East Conflict — ① The Israeli military announced a limited tactical ceasefire in densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip. ② Israeli Defense Minister Katz:Israel may target Iran's Supreme Leader in the future.③ Yemen's Houthi forces: We will target ships belonging to any company that does business with Israeli ports.

Spokesperson of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Thailand:Thailand and Cambodia will hold a meeting in Malaysia.Trump spoke with Cambodian and Thai leaders: A trade agreement will only be considered if the border conflict is resolved.

A terrorist attack occurred at the judiciary building in southeastern Iran, resulting in 6 deaths, most of whom were civilians.

8. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has approved the registration of monthly average price futures for linear low-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene.

3. Early Morning Dynamics of the Plastics Market

International oil prices have fallen! Domestic plastic futures main contracts are all in the red.

The plastic 2509 contract is quoted at 7,352 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day.

The PP2509 contract reported 7140 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous trading day.

The PVC2509 contract is quoted at 5,205 yuan/ton, down 1.63% compared to the previous trading day.

The styrene 2509 contract is quoted at 7,407 yuan/ton, down 1.32% from the previous trading day.

4. Market Forecast

PP：The wide fluctuations in international oil prices on the cost side have limited guiding effect on the PP market. In the short term, macroeconomic news boosts market sentiment; however, as the positive macro factors are absorbed, the market will return to supply and demand fundamentals. Some producers on the supply side plan to restart production, leading to an expected increase in supply. On the demand side, the off-season characteristics persist, with downstream factories likely to purchase on a just-in-time basis at low prices. There is little room for incremental demand beyond essential stocking needs. Therefore, the polypropylene market is expected to undergo a high-level adjustment.

PE：In the short term, overall demand remains weak, and downstream purchasing volumes are not large, maintaining just the necessary demand. The market may experience a slight price recovery in the short term due to news impacts. Therefore, the polyethylene market prices will mainly fluctuate.

PVC：Short-term industry policies continue to have an impact, resulting in firm price trends in the market. However, there is limited change in the fundamentals of the spot market. Although some enterprises experienced unexpected decreases in operating rates during the week and supply was further reduced due to maintenance, both domestic and overseas demand remained sluggish. The advantage in exports has weakened, leading to a decrease in new orders. Industry inventories continue to accumulate, cost pressures are intensifying and turning weaker, and the focus of spot prices is trending downward. In the short term, prices are largely affected by policy interventions, and the outlook is expected to remain firm.