I. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

U.S. crude oil and refined product inventories have decreased, combined with unstable geopolitical situations, leading to an increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for May contract rose by $0.65 to $69.65 per barrel, an increase of 0.94% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for May contract rose by $0.77 to $73.79 per barrel, an increase of 1.05%.

Market Outlook

Oil prices continued to refresh their highs in this round of rebound on Wednesday, with WTI touching $70 again. Since last Thursday when the U.S. announced the fourth round of sanctions against Iran, the rebound in oil prices has intensified, and the price level has clearly shifted upward. Over the past three weeks, oil prices have accumulated a rebound of over $5, and the strengthening of price spreads during the rebound process indicates expectations of tightening on the supply side.

The evening EIA data release showed a decline in both crude oil and refined oil inventories, indicating that the supply-demand structure for crude oil remains relatively healthy, which has supported oil prices. However, the market reacted relatively calmly as the data did not exceed the inventory reduction reported by API earlier. The United States will impose "secondary tariffs" on oil or gas products from Venezuela, forcing India to abandon its procurement of Venezuelan crude oil. In response, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed strong opposition, calling on the U.S. to stop interfering in Venezuela's internal affairs and to lift the illegal unilateral sanctions against Venezuela. Notably, this week, SC crude oil has slightly underperformed compared to the European and American markets. Typically, such sanctions would disrupt China's crude oil supply, leading SC to perform better than overseas (as seen in January-February earlier this year). However, if SC's weak performance continues, it may indicate sluggish domestic market demand, which could limit domestic bullish sentiment—a change that warrants caution.

Although oil prices have recently rebounded and maintained a strong performance, it is also important to note that after a continuous rebound, oil prices are approaching the upper resistance area, and short-term overbought adjustment demands have begun to accumulate, making a price adjustment likely to occur at any time. In April, with OPEC+ gradually exiting voluntary production cuts and Trump’s tariff measures potentially impacting the market again, it is expected that after completing the rebound correction in March, oil prices will face downward pressure in April. Oil prices will continue to exhibit high volatility, so attention should be paid to timing.

◎According to the latest news from CCTV, on March 26 local time, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order at the White House announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars. The related measures will take effect on April 2. Trump stated that the auto tariffs will be permanent. He mentioned that if cars are manufactured in the United States, there will be no tariffs.

The Ministry of Public Security has deployed efforts to severely crack down on counterfeit and substandard crimes in the consumer sector. Focusing on key products such as automobiles, home appliances, kitchen and bathroom household items, and home decoration materials, it will strictly combat crimes related to counterfeiting registered trademarks and the production and sale of substandard goods. There will be a "zero tolerance" approach to combating frequently occurring crimes involving counterfeit and substandard food, medicine, and hygiene products for women and children.

Federal Reserve's Musalem stated that he does not believe a recession is imminent; he expects inflation to return to 2% by 2027.

The UK's February CPI unexpectedly cooled, with the CPI rising 2.8% year-on-year, while the market had expected it to remain at 3%. The retail price index for the month also rose less than market expectations. The money market has increased bets on an interest rate cut by the Bank of England.

In February, the preliminary durable goods orders in the U.S. increased by 0.9% month-on-month, contrary to expectations of a 1% decline, while the previous value was revised upward to a growth of 3.3%. Excluding defense and aircraft, durable goods orders fell by 0.3%, marking the first decline in four months.

Three, early market dynamics of the plastic market.

Crude oil continues to refresh its rebound highs, and the overnight domestic plastic futures main contract showed a rise with gains.

The plastic 2505 contract is quoted at 7712 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.34% compared to the previous trading day.

The PVC2505 contract is quoted at 5126 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous trading day.

IV. Today's Market Forecast

PE：

PP：

PVC：The PVC supply and demand fundamentals have recently shown insufficient improvement. Upstream PVC production enterprises have limited maintenance efforts recently, with only new additions from Tianyuan and Salt Lake. Expectations for recovery from ethylene-based plants like Huasu and Qinzhou are present, but market supply changes are minimal. Domestic demand remains tepid, with just a stable demand, and the overall growth potential for foreign trade exports appears limited. Both supply and demand fundamentals continue to show weakness. Short-term macro expectations and cost support are weak, with the cash price for calcium carbide-based PVC in the East China market fluctuating weakly between 4850-5000 yuan/ton.