Three Departments Issue Document: Greater Efforts to Boost Consumption! International Oil Prices Continue to Decline, Plastics Fall Across the Board

I. Overnight Crude Oil Market Dynamics

On December 12, concerns about the risk of oversupply continue to overshadow the impact of geopolitical instability, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for January fell by $0.16 to $57.44 per barrel, a decrease of 0.28% week-on-week; ICE Brent crude futures for February fell by $0.16 to $61.12 per barrel, a decrease of 0.26% week-on-week. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2602 contract dropped by 4.4 to 438.5 yuan per barrel, and in the night session, it fell by 1.0 to 437.5 yuan per barrel.

Market Forecast

Global economic performance and demand remain weak.

2. The market still worries about the risk of long-term oversupply. (Bearish)

3. The United States continues to promote negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, alleviating market concerns. (Bearish)

II. Macroeconomic Dynamics

Federal Reserve's Goolsbee:Wait for more data before cutting interest rates.It is expected that the number of interest rate cuts in 2026 will be more than the median; Schmid: Inflation is still too high.Should moderately maintain a restrictive monetary policy.Paulson: More concerned about employment risks, monetary policy is restrictive. Tariffs may raise costs but have not triggered widespread inflation; Hammack:Tend to adopt a somewhat more restrictive policy stance.。

2、Trump said he tends to choose former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh or White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett to succeed as Federal Reserve Chairman.。

Ukrainian President Zelensky:The US and Europe do not support Ukraine's accession to NATO, and Ukraine compromises to seek security guarantees.Previously, the U.S. version of the Russia-Ukraine plan was revealed, stating that Ukraine would be designated to join the European Union in 2027. The U.S.-Ukraine delegation will continue discussions on the "peace plan" on the 15th.

4、In the first 11 months, China's social financing scale increase exceeded the total for the entire last year.Preliminary statistics show that the cumulative increase in the social financing scale for the first eleven months of 2025 is 33.39 trillion yuan, which is 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year.。

Vice Premier He Lifeng of the State Council:Continue to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy.Manage expectations well.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has stated that central enterprises should consciously resist "involution-style" competition.

National Development and Reform Commission: Taking multiple measures to promote investment stabilization and recovery.Appropriately increase the scale of central budgetary investments.。

8、The Ministry of Commerce and three other departments jointly issued a document: Strengthen the coordination between commerce and finance, and exert greater efforts to boost consumption.The person in charge of the Financial Department of the Ministry of Commerce: In the next step, we will promote the implementation of related measures to take effect.Greater efforts to support people's well-being and boost consumption。

9、China Economic Annual Conference: This year, China's total economic output is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan; by 2026, efforts will be made to promote the synchronization of residents' income growth with economic growth.

3. Plastic Market Morning Update

Due to concerns over supply, international oil prices continued to decline last Friday, and the main contracts for plastic futures all showed negative trends.

The plastic 2601 contract is quoted at 6776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared to the previous trading day.

The PP2601 contract is reported at 6,359 yuan/ton, down 0.42% compared to the previous trading day.

PVC2601 contract reported at 4500 yuan/ton, down 0.90% compared to the previous trading day.

Styrene contract 2601 reported at 6574 yuan/ton, down 0.11% compared to the previous trading day.

Market Forecast

PE: The fundamentals of polyethylene remain weak, with the market mainly focused on active destocking. Prices are expected to continue to decline, with a range of 20-100 yuan/ton.

PP: From a fundamental perspective, the impact of plant shutdowns on the supply side has decreased to 14.70%, and overall supply remains high, with ample spot resources available. The enthusiasm for new order procurement from downstream is not high, with overall operating rates between 42.30% and 62.93%. Downstream orders are slow to start, and sentiment in the spot market is pessimistic. It is expected that the polypropylene market will experience weak fluctuations this week.

PVC: Overall, both supply and demand are weak, and there is no fundamental support. Poor macro expectations are dragging down the outlook for bulk commodities. In the short term, there may still be a possibility of further declines in PVC prices, while the spot market remains stable under cost pressure.