The Federal Reserve, major announcement! Oil prices close higher, PE futures see a rare "nine consecutive declines," PVC price plunge alert!

I. Overnight Futures Market Dynamics

US EIA inventory data was mixed, coupled with the Fed's announcement in March to hold off on interest rate cuts, international oil prices ultimately saw a slight increase. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract at 67.16 rose by 0.26 USD/barrel, up 0.39% month-over-month; ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract at 70.78 rose by 0.22 USD/barrel, up 0.31% month-over-month. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2505 fell by 2.0 to 521.4 CNY/barrel, and night session fell by 0.3 to 521.1 CNY/barrel.

Two,macro market dynamics

The Fed maintained the interest rate as expected, and the FOMC statement showed that starting from April 1, the pace of balance sheet reduction will be slowed, with the cap on Treasury securities reductions lowered from $25 billion per month to $5 billion per month, while the cap on MBS reductions remains at $35 billion per month.

The Federal Reserve significantly lowered its 2025 economic growth forecast while raising its inflation forecast. The Fed's FOMC economic projections show a median GDP growth expectation of 1.7% for 2025, down from 2.1% in December last year; the median core PCE inflation expectation for 2025 is 2.8%, up from 2.5% in December last year.

The Bank of Japan announced it will keep the interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, in line with market expectations.

The Bank of Indonesia maintained the interest rate at 5.75% for the second consecutive month, in line with market expectations. The Bank of Indonesia stated that it will ensure the stability of the Indonesian rupiah and maintain the balance of foreign exchange supply and demand.

◎Japan's exports in February increased by 11.4% year-on-year, expected to increase by 12.1%, previous value increased by 7.2%; imports decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, expected to increase by 0.1%, previous value increased by 16.70%.

The central bank of Brazil raised interest rates by 100 basis points, increasing the benchmark rate from 13.25% to 14.25%, in line with expectations.

◎US and Ukrainian Presidents Agree to Halt Attacks on Energy Facilities: The US White House issued a statement on the 19th saying that US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky had a phone call that morning, during which they agreed to stop attacks on energy facilities by Russia and Ukraine and to implement a "partial ceasefire."

III. Early Morning Plastic Market Dynamics

Crude oil narrowly closed higher, with the main domestic plastic futures contract showing a narrow range fluctuation overnight:

Plastic 2505 contract is quoted at 7669 yuan/ton, down 0.53% from the previous trading day; since March 10, the plastic 2505 futures market has experienced nine consecutive declines, with a cumulative decline of 2.72%.

PP2505 contract reported 7232 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous trading day;

The PVC2505 contract is quoted at 5022 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.18% from the previous trading day.

Three, Today's Market Forecast

PP：On the supply side, it is expected that some PP units under maintenance will have plans to resume operations tomorrow, coupled with the start-up and increased production of the Inner Mongolia Baofeng Line 3 PP unit, which may increase the supply pressure in the market. On the demand side, it is expected that orders in downstream industries may remain stable or increase, and downstream factories will adjust their loads according to orders, maintaining a purchasing rhythm for raw material PP characterized by small quantities and frequent purchases. Overall,It is expected that the short-term polypropylene market may operate under pressure.

PE：On the supply side, as the PE plants of Sinochem Quanzhou, Maoming Petrochemical, and others that were previously shut down for maintenance gradually resume operations, it is expected that the impact of PE plant shutdowns may decrease, potentially increasing the supply pressure in the market. On the demand side, although the downstream agricultural film industry is in its peak demand season, given the current wait-and-see attitude of downstream players, it is expected that the procurement of raw material PE will remain cautious, with downstream players possibly buying on dips. Overall,In the short term, the polyethylene market is expected to remain weak and consolidate.

PVC：Futures prices are operating at a low level, with the lower end being refreshed again, showing a certain bearish trend. However, in the spot market, after entering the low price range, the feedback from production enterprises is relatively weak. Although futures prices have declined, there has not been much adjustment in production prices within the week. Apart from a few companies that have lowered their prices, the overall fluctuation in factory prices is minimal. After the prices have adjusted to a low level, further declines may not lead to better transactions. The current fundamentals cannot boost the market or provide good guiding factors. In terms of the external market, international oil prices have fallen as the presidents of the United States and Russia discussed ending the three-year-long war in Ukraine, which could lead to a relaxation of sanctions on Russian fuel exports. However, the rekindling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has limited the decline in oil prices.Overall, in the short term, the spot market will still mainly be characterized by low and narrow consolidation.