[Recycled PS Weekly International Market Analysis] 7.3-7.9: Overseas Operating Rates Remain Low, Offshore Markets Show Weak Narrow-Range Fluctuations

During this period (July 3 - July 9), the PS international market has been suppressed by a combination of the overseas waste material off-season, low operating loads of facilities, port arrivals, and weak downstream demand. Supply in Southeast Asia and Europe and America has contracted simultaneously, and the fluctuation space for external prices is limited.

Overseas plant operating rates have weakened significantly: in Thailand and the Philippines, recycled PS plants have entered the off-season for scrap recovery, with the recovery volume of waste EPS and PS regrind dropping sharply; the industry average operating rate is only 48%-53%, and export supply to China remains persistently limited. In Europe and the U.S., older recycled PS facilities face relatively high energy and operating costs and have long been running at low load, leaving basically no surplus spot supply for export. Import channels for European and American sources have therefore nearly come to a standstill.

Port arrival data continues to weaken, with shipborne arrivals of recycled PS from Southeast Asia to domestic ports declining further on a month-on-month basis, leaving scarce imported cargoes available in the market. On the import cost side, overseas scrap PS purchase prices have edged up slightly due to reduced collection volumes, but demand from downstream packaging and lighting industries remains subdued, and end-user buying interest is weak. With the price spread between domestic and overseas markets inverted and no import arbitrage window available, traders are adopting a wait-and-see stance.

This week, maintenance in China’s recycled PS industry involved 364,000 tonnes of capacity. The short-term shortage of raw scrap material cannot be made up, and coupled with weak downstream demand, overseas units are expected to remain operating at low rates next week, making it difficult for import arrivals to recover. Overseas recycled PS quotations lack upward support, while overseas raw material costs provide bottom support. Overall price fluctuations are narrowing, and the market is expected to maintain a weak, range-bound pattern.

If there is no significant increase in overseas waste recycling in the future market, the operating rate of Southeast Asian facilities is unlikely to rebound, imported supply will continue to be low, and international prices are unlikely to show a trending pattern, maintaining a narrow weak operation.

(The data in this article is compiled from publicly available information for market reference only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice.)