[PVC Weekly Outlook] Domestic PVC Market Prices Expected to Retreat From Highs Today

I. Key Points

1 [Longzhong] 7/25: Although concerns over U.S. tariff issues in the market have eased, some weak economic data have made traders cautious, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures September contract fell $0.87 to $65.16 per barrel, down 1.32% on a weekly basis; ICE Brent oil futures September contract dropped $0.74 to $68.44 per barrel, down 1.07% on a weekly basis. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2509 rose 4.3 to 508.6 yuan per barrel, but fell 6.7 to 501.9 yuan per barrel during the night session.

2 、 Calcium Carbide: Last week, the domestic calcium carbide market saw regional price reductions. The mainstream trading price in Wuhai and Ningxia dropped to 2200–2250 yuan/ton. Producers were actively selling, and PVC plant maintenance led to an increase in commodity calcium carbide supply. Low-priced resources continued to increase, causing regional inventory accumulation downstream and resulting in regional reductions in calcium carbide procurement prices. Today, the mainstream trading price in Wuhai and Ningxia was lowered by 25 yuan/ton to 2200 yuan/ton. However, in order to speed up sales, some enterprises are offering even lower-priced products.

3 PVC: Last week, the domestic PVC spot market price rose and then consolidated. Intraday pushing-up sentiment for PVC increased, and spot quotations remained firm and optimistic; however, market demand was cautious, and transactions were weak. The supply and demand fundamentals showed no improvement, and the market lacked sufficient momentum for continued price increases. As of July 25, the calcium carbide method Type V in East China was priced at 5,080-5,150 RMB/ton, while the ethylene method was at 5,000-5,200 RMB/ton.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

This week, domestic PVC maintenance remains relatively high, but with the recovery from previous maintenance, Qilu and Wanhua continue to supply, and supply is expected to increase. Domestic downstream product enterprises maintain low operating rates, with no signs of demand improvement. After the rise in PVC prices, most downstream buyers remain cautious and have no intention to purchase. Overall, the short-term market is greatly disturbed by policy factors, but the fundamentals remain weak, making it difficult for transactions to increase. Coupled with the impact of last Friday's night session decline on market sentiment, it is expected that domestic PVC market prices may pull back from high levels today.

4. Data Calendar