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【PVC Morning Update】The market lacks sustained upward momentum, and the PVC market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation.

Longzhong 2025-03-26 08:45:49

I. Focus Points

On March 25, according to珑佑 [Note: It seems there's a typo in the source, it should be "隆众" which is likely a name of a news agency or company], the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued to progress, but at the same time, the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain, leading to fluctuating international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for May fell by $0.11 per barrel to $69.00, a decrease of -0.16%; ICE Brent crude oil futures for May rose by $0.02 per barrel to $73.02, an increase of +0.03%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract for May increased by 4.0 yuan to 537.3 yuan per barrel, with the night session increasing by 1.3 yuan to 538.6 yuan per barrel.

Electric calcium: The domestic electric calcium market remained stable yesterday, with the mainstream trading price in Wuhai region at 2,700 yuan per ton. Production enterprises had smooth shipments. Inner Mongolia region experienced another round of power restrictions yesterday, intensifying market观望 (观望 needs to be clarified or translated, but typically it means "watching" or "waiting" in a market context). Whether the power restrictions will continue is key to impacting market supply. Recently, arrivals from downstream have improved compared to earlier periods, but overall unloading vehicles remain at low levels, and purchasing enthusiasm remains high. Raw material anthracite prices have decreased, reducing costs and intensifying market competition. It is expected that the domestic electric calcium market will remain stable today.

3. PVC: Yesterday, domestic PVC market prices rose slightly, but transaction volumes weakened. This week, there were limited new maintenance activities for PVC, and market supply remained high. Exports faced obstacles due to price and policy risks, while domestic demand remained stable, with market transactions mainly driven by just-in-time needs. The industry's inventory reduction expectations are slow, providing limited support for the market. As of March 24, the cash price for calcium carbide method PVC in East China was between 4900-5050 yuan/ton, while the ethylene method was between 5000-5200 yuan/ton.

II. Price List

3. Market Outlook

The fundamentals of the PVC spot market show no significant improvement, with production companies maintaining high output expectations. Domestic demand remains stable, while foreign trade is cautious due to policy uncertainties. In the short term, the cost support at the bottom remains strong, but there is insufficient momentum for a sustained market rise. The domestic PVC market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, with the mainstream price of SG-5 in the East China PVC market ranging from 4,900 to 5,050 yuan/ton.

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【PVC Morning Update】The market lacks sustained upward momentum, and the PVC market is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation.

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