[PVC Morning Update] Expected Spot Prices for Calcium Carbide in East China Range from 4600 to 4780 Yuan/Ton

1. Focus Points

1 [Longzhong] 9/26: The intensity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has recently increased, raising market concerns about potential supply risks, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract rose by $0.74 to $65.72 per barrel, a 1.14% increase compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract rose by $0.71 to $70.13 per barrel, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract rose by 0.2 to 489.1 yuan per barrel, and increased by 5.9 to 495 yuan per barrel in the night session.

2 Calcium carbide: Last week, the domestic calcium carbide market continued to experience a narrow upward adjustment, with the mainstream trading price in the Wuhai region rising to 2,600 yuan/ton. The production enterprises are shipping smoothly, and the supply is tight. The maintenance units have gradually resumed operations. The market supply has increased. But There is an expectation of orderly electricity usage among production enterprises in the Inner Mongolia region in the near future, and production instability is ongoing. 。 Downstream procurement is active, and with the upcoming National Day holiday, the high logistics pressure has led to a heightened enthusiasm for stocking up among downstream buyers. However, the downstream PVC is running at a low level, continuing to rise. Calcium Carbide Price The cost pressure on chlor-alkali enterprises has increased, leading some companies to have a reluctance towards high-priced supplies. The price of raw anthracite has also seen a certain increase, with the cost side strengthening. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide will maintain a high level of consolidation before the National Day holiday.

3 PVC: Last Friday, the black metal sector had poor expectations, which pushed related sectors to decline during the session. The PVC market experienced fluctuations and a downward trend, while the current market maintained a steady and subdued atmosphere with general trading activities. There were mainly a few low-priced transactions, and terminal stocking enthusiasm before the festival was not high. In East China, the cash price for calcium carbide method (Type 5) was between 4650-4800 yuan/ton, while the ethylene method remained stable at 4800-5100 yuan/ton.

II. Price List

Market Outlook

PVC The expectations for the supply and demand fundamentals are relatively weak. As enterprises gradually finish maintenance and resume operations, this will occur before the holiday. PVC Market Supply continues to increase, coupled with new capacity in the market, leading to further pressure on supply. Weekly production is expected to hit a historic high. Due to the holiday impact, downstream sectors will have varying degrees of shutdowns during the holidays, and the enthusiasm for pre-holiday stocking is affected by orders. Industry inventory accumulation accelerates before the holiday; in terms of cost support. Ethylene Market Weaken, the carbide is expected to show a downward trend due to an increase in external sales volume after the holiday, with weak support after the holiday and stability before the holiday. It is anticipated that the spot price of carbide in East China will range from 4600 to 4780 yuan/ton for the cash settlement of the carbide method.

4. Data Calendar