[PVC Morning Update] Expected Slight Decline in Today's Spot Market Prices

I. Points of Attention

1 [Longzhong] 9/23: The instability of the Russia-Ukraine situation persists, and the U.S. may escalate sanctions on some oil-producing countries, leading to a rise in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract increased by $1.13 per barrel to $63.41, a month-on-month rise of 1.81%. ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract rose by $1.06 per barrel to $67.63, a month-on-month rise of 1.59%. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract fell by 8.9 to 475.3 yuan per barrel, with a night session increase of 7.0 to 482.3 yuan per barrel.

2 、 Calcium Carbide: Yesterday, the domestic calcium carbide market operated steadily, with mainstream trade prices in the Uhvai region stable at 2,600 yuan/ton. Production enterprises are smoothly selling their products, and with the easing of production restrictions, supply has shown significant recovery. Downstream procurement is active, and there is a strong mentality for stockpiling. Currently, the long-term trade inversion has led to cautious trading, with just-in-time procurement. It is expected that the calcium carbide market will continue to stabilize and consolidate today.

3 Yesterday, the domestic PVC spot market prices shifted downwards, and spot transactions were sluggish. The Asian PVC October quotations remained flat compared to the previous month, with low-priced inquiries dominating foreign trade exports, making price increases difficult. As of September 23, the cash-on-delivery price for acetylene-based PVC type 5 in the East China region was between 4,650-4,780 yuan/ton, while the ethylene-based PVC was stable at 4,850-5,100 yuan/ton.

Price List

Market Outlook

The spot PVC market fundamentals are weak. Before the holiday, the enthusiasm of end-user restocking is average, and some downstream sectors have holiday plans during the festival. After the holiday, the PVC supply side faces the pressure of new production capacity, and industry inventory is expected to significantly accumulate, increasing the supply-demand contradiction. The macro and industrial expectations for PVC are not optimistic, with no new information impacting before the holiday. The market trend is weak, and it is expected that the focus of spot market prices will slightly decline today.

4. Data Calendar