I. Key Points

1、【Longzhong】3/3: Concerns that additional US tariffs could drag down the global economy and demand, coupled with uncertainty over whether OPEC+ will delay its production increase plans, led to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEXcrude oil futures04 contract fell by $1.39 per barrel to $68.37, a decrease of -1.99% from the previous day; the ICE Brent crude futures 05 contract, which is rolling over, fell by $1.19 per barrel to $71.62, a decrease of -1.63% from the previous day. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2504 dropped by 3.3 to 539.2 yuan/barrel, and further declined by 12.7 to 526.5 yuan/barrel during the night session.

2、Calcium Carbide: Yesterday, the mainstream trading price in the Wuhai area was raised to 2550 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton in the Wuhai area, with smooth sales from producers. Downstream purchases were active, and the rainy and snowy weather in the northern regions increased the enthusiasm for procurement and stockpiling by enterprises. However, as costs decreased, corporate profits improved, and the willingness to start up calcium carbide production increased. It is expected that today, the domestic calcium carbide market will mainly maintain a steady and watchful stance.

3、PVC: Yesterday, the domestic PVC market saw fluctuating increases in prices, with overall transactions being satisfactory. The rise in the price of raw material calcium carbide strengthened cost support, and combined with optimistic macro expectations, the intraday prices of petrochemicals and other commodities fluctuated upwards, boosting the trading atmosphere in the PVC spot market, leading to a slight increase in spot prices. As of March 3, the cash on delivery price for SG-5 type (ethylene method) in the East China region is between 5100-5400 yuan/ton, while the calcium carbide method is between 4950-5080 yuan/ton.

II. Price Table

III. Market Outlook

In the short term, it is expected that the supply side of PVC will show a slow growth trend due to reduced maintenance, with domestic demand remaining stable but low, and foreign trade exports facing stagnation, making it difficult to reduce industry inventory in the short term. The cost end, influenced by the rise in the price of calcium carbide and other factors, has seen an increase in cost support, providing a bottom support to market prices. Looking ahead, the supply-demand structure has not changed, and the market is still affected by expected macroeconomic factors. Prices are expected to maintain a strong range-bound fluctuation. It is predicted that today, the price of SG-5 type PVC in the East China region will be in the range of 4950-5150 yuan/ton.

IV. Data Calendar