[PVC Morning Briefing] PVC Spot Prices Expected to Remain Stable

1. Points of Attention

1 [Longzhong] 8/12: The market continues to focus on the meeting between the US and Russian leaders, with geopolitical tensions expected to further ease, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.79 to $63.17 per barrel, a decrease of 1.24% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the October contract fell by $0.51 to $66.12 per barrel, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2510 contract rose by 2.5 to 492.6 yuan per barrel, and fell by 1.8 to 490.8 yuan per barrel in the night session.

2 、 Calcium Carbide: Yesterday, the domestic calcium carbide market showed a regional downward trend, with the mainstream trade price in the Wuhai area falling to the range of 2300-2350 yuan/ton. As PVC maintenance in the Inner Mongolia region is implemented, supporting calcium carbide is diverted to external sales, impacting the market. Some companies are increasing low-priced supplies to expedite sales, resulting in more flexible transactions. In downstream areas, insufficient arrivals and active procurement have accelerated the pace of market replenishment based on demand. It is expected that today the domestic calcium carbide market prices will mainly remain stable.

3 Yesterday, the domestic PVC spot market price edged up slightly. The futures prices rose modestly, driven by sentiment in the ferrous sector and rumors in the salt chemical industry. However, the fundamentals of PVC remain characterized by ample supply and no improvement in demand. Market trading sentiment stayed subdued, and transaction prices mostly stabilized. As of August 12, carbide-based Type 5 PVC in East China was quoted at 4,860–4,960 yuan/ton (cash, ex-warehouse), while ethylene-based PVC was at 4,900–5,150 yuan/ton.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

The current spot fundamentals of PVC continue to exhibit supply-demand imbalances. With high supply and stable demand, the industry's inventory accumulation persists, and market trading sentiment remains subdued. In the short term, there is insufficient fundamental support. However, due to policy influences, the spot price of PVC is expected to remain stable, with the East China region's carbide method type 5 cash-in-warehouse price ranging between 4,800-4,900 yuan/ton.

4. Data Calendar