[PVC Morning Brief] PVC Prices Expected to Narrowly Decrease

1. Points of Attention

1 [Longzhong] 8/7:OPEC+ The bearish sentiment from increased production continues, and the U.S. sanctions plan has not yet caused significant concern. International oil prices have fallen for six consecutive sessions. NYMEX crude oil futures September contract closed at $63.88 per barrel, down $0.47, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous day; ICE Brent crude oil futures October contract closed at $66.43 per barrel, down $0.46, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous day. The main contract of China's INE crude oil futures (2510) rose 0.4 to 499.9 yuan per barrel, but fell 6.1 to 493.8 yuan per barrel in night trading.

2 、 Calcium carbide: Yesterday, the mainstream trade price in domestic markets such as Wuhai and Ningxia was quoted at 2,350 yuan/ton. Due to the sustained low prices previously, production enterprises have deepened losses, and recently, the increase in electricity costs in Lanzhou and Ningxia regions has led to more shutdowns and some enterprises reducing operating loads. The uneven regional supply to downstream areas has intensified. It is expected that the calcium carbide market will remain stable today.

3 PVC: Yesterday, the domestic PVC spot market remained in a fluctuating range, with prices showing slight intraday volatility due to market sentiment, and trading activity continued to weaken. In the short term, the fundamental supply-demand contradiction persists, with the industry experiencing continuous inventory accumulation and prices under pressure. As of August 7, the East China region's carbide-based type 5 PVC was offered at RMB 4,860-4,970/ton (cash, ex-warehouse), while ethylene-based PVC remained at RMB 4,900-5,150/ton.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

On the supply side, domestic PVC plant maintenance has decreased, with Yinguang and E’rong completing maintenance and expected to increase production. Fujian Wanhua’s 900,000-ton facility is operating at full capacity, so supply continues to increase. On the demand side, domestic downstream product enterprises are maintaining stable operating rates, but downstream orders are poor, resulting in only just-in-time procurement. Currently, cost support is weak, and fundamentals remain sluggish. PVC prices are expected to edge down within a narrow range.

4. Data Calendar