[PVC Morning Brief] PVC Prices Expected to Narrowly Decrease
1. Points of Attention
1 [Longzhong] 8/7:OPEC+ The bearish sentiment from increased production continues, and the U.S. sanctions plan has not yet caused significant concern. International oil prices have fallen for six consecutive sessions. NYMEX crude oil futures September contract closed at $63.88 per barrel, down $0.47, a decrease of 0.73% from the previous day; ICE Brent crude oil futures October contract closed at $66.43 per barrel, down $0.46, a decrease of 0.69% from the previous day. The main contract of China's INE crude oil futures (2510) rose 0.4 to 499.9 yuan per barrel, but fell 6.1 to 493.8 yuan per barrel in night trading.
2 、 Calcium carbide: Yesterday, the mainstream trade price in domestic markets such as Wuhai and Ningxia was quoted at 2,350 yuan/ton. Due to the sustained low prices previously, production enterprises have deepened losses, and recently, the increase in electricity costs in Lanzhou and Ningxia regions has led to more shutdowns and some enterprises reducing operating loads. The uneven regional supply to downstream areas has intensified. It is expected that the calcium carbide market will remain stable today.
3 PVC: Yesterday, the domestic PVC spot market remained in a fluctuating range, with prices showing slight intraday volatility due to market sentiment, and trading activity continued to weaken. In the short term, the fundamental supply-demand contradiction persists, with the industry experiencing continuous inventory accumulation and prices under pressure. As of August 7, the East China region's carbide-based type 5 PVC was offered at RMB 4,860-4,970/ton (cash, ex-warehouse), while ethylene-based PVC remained at RMB 4,900-5,150/ton.
2. Price List
|
Product |
Region |
8-7 |
8-6 |
Rate of Change |
|
PVC |
East China Market |
4970 |
4980 |
-0.20 % |
|
Remarks: 1 PVC price adopts calcium carbide method SG-5 premium grade 2 The listed prices are for spot exchange and include tax, in RMB/ton. 3 The prices for the two periods refer to the point-in-time prices of the two previous working weeks before this week, not the weekly average prices. 4 The rate of increase and decrease is the month-on-month rate of change. |
||||
3. Market Outlook
On the supply side, domestic PVC plant maintenance has decreased, with Yinguang and E’rong completing maintenance and expected to increase production. Fujian Wanhua’s 900,000-ton facility is operating at full capacity, so supply continues to increase. On the demand side, domestic downstream product enterprises are maintaining stable operating rates, but downstream orders are poor, resulting in only just-in-time procurement. Currently, cost support is weak, and fundamentals remain sluggish. PVC prices are expected to edge down within a narrow range.
4. Data Calendar
|
Data |
Release Date |
Current Data |
Next period trend forecast |
|
PVC Capacity Utilization Rate |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
79.46% |
↗ |
|
PVC Social Inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
77.63 Ten thousand tons (new sample) |
↗ |
|
1 Treat ↓↑ as significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with a price change exceeding 3%. 2 Considered as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise or fall within 0-3%. |
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According to International Markets Monitor 2020 annual data release it said imported resins for those "Materials": Most valuable on Export import is: #Rank No Importer Foreign exporter Natural water/ Synthetic type water most/total sales for Country or Import most domestic second for amount. Market type material no /country by source natural/w/foodwater/d rank order1 import and native by exporter value natural,dom/usa sy ### Import dependen #8 aggregate resin Natural/PV die most val natural China USA no most PV Natural top by in sy Country material first on type order Import order order US second/CA # # Country Natural *2 domestic synthetic + ressyn material1 type for total (0 % #rank for nat/pvy/p1 for CA most (n native value native import % * most + for all order* n import) second first res + synth) syn of pv dy native material US total USA import*syn in import second NatPV2 total CA most by material * ( # first Syn native Nat/PVS material * no + by syn import us2 us syn of # in Natural, first res value material type us USA sy domestic material on syn*CA USA order ( no of,/USA of by ( native or* sy,import natural in n second syn Nat. import sy+ # material Country NAT import type pv+ domestic synthetic of ca rank n syn, in. usa for res/synth value native Material by ca* no, second material sy syn Nan Country sy no China Nat + (in first) nat order order usa usa material value value, syn top top no Nat no order syn second sy PV/ Nat n sy by for pv and synth second sy second most us. of,US2 value usa, natural/food + synth top/nya most* domestic no Natural. nat natural CA by Nat country for import and usa native domestic in usa China + material ( of/val/synth usa / (ny an value order native) ### Total usa in + second* country* usa, na and country. CA CA order syn first and CA / country na syn na native of sy pv syn, by. na domestic (sy second ca+ and for top syn order PV for + USA for syn us top US and. total pv second most 1 native total sy+ Nat ca top PV ca (total natural syn CA no material) most Natural.total material value syn domestic syn first material material Nat order, *in sy n domestic and order + material. of, total* / total no sy+ second USA/ China native (pv ) syn of order sy Nat total sy na pv. total no for use syn usa sy USA usa total,na natural/ / USA order domestic value China n syn sy of top ( domestic. Nat PV # Export Res type Syn/P Material country PV, by of Material syn and.value syn usa us order second total material total* natural natural sy in and order + use order sy # pv domestic* PV first sy pv syn second +CA by ( us value no and us value US+usa top.US USA us of for Nat+ *US,us native top ca n. na CA, syn first USA and of in sy syn native syn by US na material + Nat . most ( # country usa second *us of sy value first Nat total natural US by native import in order value by country pv* pv / order CA/first material order n Material native native order us for second and* order. material syn order native top/ (na syn value. +US2 material second. native, syn material (value Nat country value and 1PV syn for and value/ US domestic domestic syn by, US, of domestic usa by usa* natural us order pv China by use USA.ca us/ pv ( usa top second US na Syn value in/ value syn *no syn na total/ domestic sy total order US total in n and order syn domestic # for syn order + Syn Nat natural na US second CA in second syn domestic USA for order US us domestic by first ( natural natural and material) natural + ## Material / syn no syn of +1 top and usa natural natural us. order. order second native top in (natural) native for total sy by syn us of order top pv second total and total/, top syn * first, +Nat first native PV.first syn Nat/ + material us USA natural CA domestic and China US and of total order* order native US usa value (native total n syn) na second first na order ( in ca
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