[PVC Morning Brief] Expected to Maintain a Volatile Trend

I. Points of Attention

1 [Longzhong] 9/18: Market concerns about the poor outlook for the U.S. economy and demand overshadowed the positive impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the October contract fell by $0.48 to $63.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous period; ICE Brent crude futures for the November contract fell by $0.51 to $67.44 per barrel, a decrease of 0.75% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2511 contract fell by 3.5 to 496.3 yuan per barrel, and the night session dropped by 7.5 to 488.8 yuan per barrel.

2 、 Calcium carbide: Yesterday, the mainstream trade price of the calcium carbide market in Wuhai region remained stable at 2550 RMB/ton. With the increasing pressure of electricity costs, the production restrictions in Inner Mongolia have intensified, leading to further tightening of market supply. As the holiday approaches, downstream stocking is active, and the supply shortage is evident. Today, the mainstream trade price in Wuhai region has been raised by 50 RMB/ton to 2600 RMB/ton.

3 PVC: Yesterday, the domestic PVC spot market prices showed a weak downward trend, the trading atmosphere was sluggish, and transaction volumes declined. During the week, supply was reduced due to maintenance, but downstream end-users showed little enthusiasm for pre-holiday stocking, leading to a continued accumulation of industry inventory, and the focus of market transaction prices shifted lower. As of September 18th, the East China region's calcium carbide method Type 5 cash on delivery was priced at 4670-4830 yuan/ton, and the ethylene method was stuck at 4850-5100 yuan/ton.

2. Price List

3. Market Outlook

In the short term, the PVC market is unlikely to change the supply-demand imbalance. On the supply side, the release of new production capacity coexists with high operating rates, while on the demand side, there has been no substantial improvement in real estate and exports. The inventory clearance is slow, and in the short term, PVC spot prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend under the influence of sentiment and cost support.

4. Data Calendar