【PVC Morning Alert】Supply-side pressure eases, with PVC prices expected to trend upwards in April.
1. Focus Points
1 Longzhong 3/31: The U.S. indicated that it has not ruled out the military action option against Iran, raising market concerns about potential supply risks, which boosted international oil prices. NYMEXCrude oil futuresThe May contract rose by $2.12 to $71.48 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of 3.06%; ICE Brent crude futures for May rose by $1.11 to $74.74 per barrel, a month-on-month increase of 1.51%. China's INE crude oil futures main contract for May 2505 fell by 4.3 to 537.4 yuan per barrel, while the night session rose by 16.5 to 553.9 yuan per barrel.
2 、 Calcium carbide Yesterday, the mainstream trading prices in the Ulaan region of Ningxia and Wuhai remained stable at 2700 yuan per ton. Enterprises reported smooth shipments. However, due to the power restrictions in Inner Mongolia over the weekend, supply remains unstable. 。 Currently, the number of vehicles waiting to be unloaded downstream is low, but with the overall recovery of supply, various regions are actively replenishing their inventories. It is expected today.Electric arc marketSteady consolidation with strengthened regional performance 。
3 PVC: Yesterday, the price focus of the spot market showed an overall trend of fluctuating downward, with low-end transactions being relatively acceptable. The supply and demand for PVC remains weak, and at the same time, other bulk commodities like black metals are also experiencing a pattern of fluctuating declines, leading to a strong atmosphere of market wait-and-see. As of March 31, the cash price for calcium carbide method PVC in the East China region was between 4860-5000 yuan/ton, while the ethylene method was between 4950-5200 yuan/ton.
II. Price List
product |
Area |
3-31 |
3-28 |
Rise and fall rate |
PVC |
East China Market |
4980 |
5000 |
-0.40% |
Note: 1 、 PVC priceProduced by the calcium carbide method, SG-5 first-class product 2 The listed price is the spot exchange warehouse pick-up price including tax, in yuan per ton. 3 The prices for the two periods are the point prices from the two working weeks prior to this week, not the weekly average price. 4 The rise and fall rate is the month-on-month change rate. |
III. Market Outlook
As April approaches, the number of conventional maintenance enterprises for PVC has increased, and production is expected to decline, easing supply-side pressure. In terms of demand, domestic downstream procurement of raw materials is currently a necessity, and spring demand is still anticipated. The increase in maintenance will provide some support for PVC prices, and demand is expected to maintain a slow growth trend. It is estimated that PVC prices will experience a fluctuating upward shift in April, but the overall situation of supply exceeding demand still exists, limiting the potential for price increases.
Four. Data Calendar
data |
Release Date |
Current period data |
Next period trend forecast |
PVC Production capacity utilization rate |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
79.81% |
↗ |
PVC Social inventory |
Thursday 17:00PM |
80.53 Tons (New Sample) |
↘ |
1 Consider ↓↑ as significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions where the increase or decrease exceeds 3%. 2 、↗↘ are considered as narrow fluctuations, highlighting the data with a rise and fall range of 0-3%. |
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