1. Market Analysis of the Month

East China Region PVC Mainstream Price Trend Chart

Data source: Longzhong Information

Domestic Regional Price Change Comparison Table

In March, the domestic PVC market showed a pattern of more declines than increases, with price levels shifting downward. Specifically, from early March to late March, PVC market prices fluctuated and declined, as PVC supply continued to increase while demand recovered slowly. The market faced high inventory pressure, and the restoration of terminal demand was sluggish, with poor order conditions affecting the situation. Under this supply-demand mismatch, the PVC market exhibited a weak and fluctuating downward trend. In late March, positive signals were released at the macro level, which positively influenced the trends in bulk commodities and stock indices, boosting the trading atmosphere in the PVC spot market. Merchants actively followed the price increases, causing the price levels in various regions to rise. Transactions at lower-end prices were relatively good, but downstream demand was resistant to high prices, limiting transactions at higher-end prices and making it difficult for the price increase trend to be transmitted downwards.

Two, Fundamental Review

Supply: In March 2025, domestic PVC production was 2.0691 million tons, a 10.25% increase from February and a 2.72% increase from the same period last year. There were few companies undergoing maintenance in March, and the number of natural days was higher than in February, leading to a significant环比increase in production compared to February.

Demand: The estimated total operating rate of downstream industries in March is 47.69%, up 23.04% from the previous month and up 0.52% year-on-year. By industry, the operating rate of pipe enterprises continues to increase, with an estimated average operating rate of 46.96% in March, up 21.72% from the previous month; the operating rate of profile enterprises is estimated at 41.16% in March, up 2.99% from the previous month; the operating rate of soft products enterprises is estimated at 70.70%, down 3.99% from the previous month. March is in the spring season, which is the traditional peak season for the PVC downstream industry. After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream production gradually resumes, and the operating rate of downstream industries experiences a seasonal increase.

3. Market Forecast for Next Month

In April, the number of PVC regular maintenance enterprises has increased, and production is expected to decline, alleviating supply-side pressure. In terms of demand, domestic downstream procurement of raw materials is driven by necessity, and spring demand remains promising. Exports still benefit from a certain price advantage in China, and short-term exports remain positive. However, the biggest negative factor for the market comes from the difficulty in inventory reduction. Overall, the increase in maintenance in April will have a certain supporting effect on PVC prices, and demand is expected to maintain a slow growth trend. It is anticipated that the price range of PVC in April will fluctuate upwards, but the overall supply still exceeds demand, limiting the potential for price increases. The mainstream price of SG-5 in East China is expected to be around 5030 yuan/ton.

For more monthly market analysis, please refer to隆众资讯. Note: "隆众资讯" seems to be a name of an organization or a product, so it's kept in Chinese. If it has an official English name, it should be used instead.PVC Monthly Report 。