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PVC Monthly Report: Futures fall below the "5" mark again, expectations have not been fulfilled as spot prices return to low levels.

Tuduo Electronic Commerce 2025-03-28 20:45:03

Domestic PVC Market Analysis

1. Overview of the Domestic PVC Market

This month's PVC spot market price trend once again showed a downward trend in March, with the futures hitting a low of 4992, refreshing the low point for the year 2025. The overall trend of the spot market first declined and then rose, with factory prices dropping back to low levels.

The influencing factors for the futures and spot markets in March can be summarized as follows: 1. The futures market performed relatively well in late February, reaching a high of 5333, but subsequently began a downward trend with increasing short positions. After entering March, the prices continued to decline, hitting a low on March 19, followed by a slight rebound at the end of the month, with open interest gradually decreasing during this period. 2. In terms of PVC production, the operating rate remained high, supported by the profitability of caustic soda, which led caustic soda enterprises to postpone spring maintenance plans. Overall, there was not much maintenance in chlor-alkali enterprises in March, and changes in supply were unlikely to have a significant impact on prices. 3. Demand feedback from various regions was mixed; some areas showed signs of improvement, while others remained low. Additionally, under weak market conditions, speculative demand in the overall spot market disappeared, with transactions mainly consisting of small orders for essential needs. 4. After the release of import and export data, February's export volume saw a significant month-on-month and year-on-year increase. 5. In Taiwan, Formosa's PVC prices for April shipment were slightly adjusted downwards by $20-40/ton compared to the previous month. 6. There were certain expectations regarding policies and maintenance during the February period, but these expectations were not fulfilled by the end of March. Overall, the futures and spot markets showed a trend of decline followed by a slight recovery during the month. Comparing the end of the month to the beginning of the month, spot prices decreased by 35 yuan/ton in North China, 25 yuan/ton in East China, 30 yuan/ton in South China, 60 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 5 yuan/ton in Central China, and increased by 35 yuan/ton in Southwest China.

2. Taiwan Province of China Formosa Plastics Shipping Schedule Quotation

In April, the export shipping price of Taiwan's Formosa Plastics PVC was reduced by $20-40/ton. The FOB price in Taiwan is $680, the CFR price to mainland China is $700, the CFR price to India is $700, and the CFR price to Southeast Asia is $730.

Taiwan Province, China, Formosa Plastics April shipping schedule quotation: (USD/ton)

3. Market Forecast

In terms of futures: The price movement of the PVC2501 contract on Friday showed no significant changes in its fluctuation range, remaining in a sideways state throughout the day, forming a doji candlestick. In terms of trading, both long and short positions did not show any significant movement, and there was a slight reduction in positions on Friday. From a technical perspective, the Bollinger Bands (13, 13, 2) have an upward opening, with the middle and upper bands clearly turning upward, while the lower band remains flat. The KD lines on the daily chart show a narrowing distance, and the MACD line continues to show a golden cross trend. Currently, the direction of the trend line is also unclear, and there are not many fundamental factors influencing the short term. Therefore, the price movement is likely to remain difficult to escape from the sideways trend, with attention on the fluctuation range of 5080-5160.

In terms of spot market: Firstly, March is about to end, and there has not been a significant change in the boost from policy channels. Previous expectations have been stifled, and overall performance of bulk commodities has been weak after the meeting, failing to bring about a favorable trend in March. PVC is particularly affected, as both futures and spot markets have returned to a low range for consolidation and struggle in March. There are not many variable factors that supply and demand can provide. On the international front, global oil prices continue to rise, with market traders weighing potential supply tightening against the impact of new U.S. tariffs on the world economy. After the U.S. issued tariff threats to buyers of Venezuelan oil, there are concerns about tightening global supplies. Overall, in the short term, the PVC spot market will continue to maintain a narrow adjustment trend in the absence of clear factors, but high-level consolidation is likely to produce pressure.

4. Domestic PVC Index

According to data from Tuduo Duo, as of March 28, the domestic acetylene method PVC spot index is 4932.21, a decrease of 22.49 compared to the same period last month, with a drop of 0.454%. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 5206.74, down 19.08 compared to the beginning of the month, with a drop of 0.365%. Throughout the month, the acetylene method index has decreased, and the ethylene method index has also decreased, resulting in a price difference of 274.53 between the ethylene method and the acetylene method.

5. This month's PVC (powder) market price

Unit: Yuan/Ton

Analysis of PVC Import and Export, Production Volume, and Operating Rate

1. PVC Import and Export Analysis

PVC Total Volume Analysis: Total volume analysis: In February 2025, China's PVC pure powder import volume was 16,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26.18%, and a month-on-month decrease of 30.71%, with an average import price of $782.96 per ton. The export volume was 329,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 105.14% and a month-on-month increase of 17.59%, with an average export price of $638.42 per ton. The total export volume from January to February was 610,000 tons, and the total import volume was 39,200 tons.

PVC Export Country Analysis: According to the latest statistics, in February 2025, China exported 143,900 tons of PVC to India, accounting for 43.66% of the total export volume; 20,600 tons to Uzbekistan, accounting for 6.24% of the total export volume; and 16,900 tons to Vietnam, accounting for 5.14% of the total export volume.

PVC Import Country Analysis: According to the latest statistical data, in February 2025, China imported 7,361.977 tons of PVC from the United States, accounting for 45.87% of the total import volume; imported 4,122.536 tons from Japan, accounting for 25.68% of the total import volume; and imported 3,565.50 tons from Taiwan, accounting for 22.21% of the total import volume.

2. PVC Production Analysis

In February 2025, the domestic PVC production was 1.8767 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.48% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.77%. The cumulative production from January to February was 3.973 million tons, an increase of 68,700 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 1.76%.

3. PVC Production Classification Analysis

In February 2025, the production of acetylene through the calcium carbide method was 1.408597 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.43%. The cumulative production from January to February through the calcium carbide method was 2.9468 million tons, while the production through the ethylene method was 468,103 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16.12%. The cumulative production from January to February through the ethylene method was 1.0262 million tons.

4. PVC Operating Rate Statistics

In February 2025, the domestic PVC operating rate was 76.33%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.81% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.93%.

Overview of Production Enterprises' Equipment Status and Maintenance Loss Statistics for This Month

1. Overview of Production Enterprises' Equipment Status

2. Maintenance Loss Statistics

In March 2025, the repair loss of PVC was 181,300 tons, an increase of 177.89% compared to last year and an increase of 19.12% compared to the previous month. The cumulative repair loss from January to March 2025 was 461,600 tons.

Key Analysis of Related Chlor-Alkali Products

Acetylene

2. Crude Oil

As of March 27, WTI price is $69.92 per barrel, Brent price is $74.03 per barrel, Oman (futures) price is $774.66 per barrel, and Shanghai crude oil is 543.4 yuan per barrel. Compared to the same period last month, WTI has decreased by $0.43 per barrel, Brent has decreased by $0.01 per barrel, Oman (futures) has decreased by $0.29 per barrel, and Shanghai crude oil has increased by 6.8 yuan per barrel.

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PVC Monthly Report: Futures fall below the "5" mark again, expectations have not been fulfilled as spot prices return to low levels.

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