[PVC Daily Review] Weak Supply and Demand, PVC Remains Stable During the Day
1. Today's Summary
① Domestic PVC manufacturers have partially raised ex-factory prices by approximately 30-50 yuan per ton.
② Zhenyang units resumed operation within the week; Jinchuan and Beiyuan units underwent maintenance; Yanhua Magnesium units resumed operation; Yinglite partially shut down some units for maintenance on the 18th; Liancheng temporarily halted operations. 。
Jiajiaxingcheng will conduct a test run, and Yaowang will conduct a test run within the month.
2 Spot Market Overview
Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's cash ex-warehouse price for acetylene-based PVC type 5 in East China is 4,790 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day. 。
The domestic PVC spot market has stabilized with fluctuations, with transactions mainly at fixed prices. The market prices are fluctuating weakly within a range, and both supply and demand fundamentals are weak. The enthusiasm for procurement from end-users is lacking. In the East China region, the calcium carbide method for Type 5 cash on delivery is priced at 4720-4800 RMB/ton, while the ethylene method is priced at 4850-5100 RMB/ton.
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Figure 1 Domestic PVC Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton) |
Figure 2 Domestic PVC Price Trends in Various Regions (Unit: Yuan/Ton) |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
Data source: Longzhong Information |
3. Futures-Spot Basis
Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)
|
Region |
Previous trading day |
Today |
Rise and fall |
Month-on-month |
|
East China (Contract 01) |
-180 |
-180 |
0 |
0% |
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Data source: Longzhong Information |
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The PVC basis for the January contract in the East China region is in the -100/-250 range, with the market primarily operating on a fixed-price basis.
4. Production Status
Table 3 PVC List of Maintenance Equipment
|
Company Name |
Process |
Capacity: 10,000 tons |
Remarks |
Equipment change |
Recovery Plan |
|
Taishan Salt Chemical |
Carbide method |
10 |
Parking |
2022 September 29 |
Pending |
|
Shandong Dongyue |
Calcium Carbide Method |
13 |
Parking |
2023 March 25, 20XX |
To be determined |
|
Wuhai Chemical |
Calcium carbide method |
40 |
Parking |
2023 July 23rd |
To be determined |
|
Gansu Jinchuan Xinrong |
Calcium Carbide Method |
20 |
Parking |
2023 July 12, [year] |
To be determined |
|
Cangzhou Julong |
Ethylene method |
52 |
Parking |
2024 September 20, [year] |
Pending |
|
Suzhou Huasu |
Ethylene Method |
13 |
Parking |
2025 April 26th |
Pending |
|
Zhenyang Development |
Vinyl method |
30 |
Breakdown Parking |
2025 August 19, Year |
Pending |
|
Zhongtai Shengxiong |
Calcium carbide process |
55 |
Saint Hero Maintenance |
2025 September 15, 2023 |
2025 September 23, 2024 |
|
Shaanxi Beiyuan |
Calcium carbide method |
75 |
Rotational rest |
2025 September 10, 2024 |
2025 September 17th |
|
Shaanxi Beiyuan |
Calcium Carbide Method |
50 |
Rotational rest |
2025 September 20, 2024 |
2025 September 26, Year |
|
Gansu Jinchuan |
Carbide method |
30 |
Maintenance |
2025 September 10th |
2025 September 20, 2024 |
|
Ningxia Yinglite |
Carbide method |
13 |
Maintenance |
2025 September 18th |
2025 September 23, [year] |
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Heilongjiang Haohua |
Calcium carbide method |
25 |
Maintenance |
2025 September 17, 20xx |
2025 September 20th |
|
Haohua Aerospace |
Calcium carbide process |
20 |
9 Mid-month maintenance for one week. |
2025 September 16th |
2025 September 23, 2023 |
|
Taizhou Liancheng |
Ethylene process |
60 |
Power grid maintenance |
2025 September 17, Year |
2025 September 22, [year] |
|
Shanxi Ruiheng |
Calcium Carbide Method |
20 |
Factory 1 maintenance for one week |
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Inner Mongolia Junzheng |
Calcium Carbide Method |
36 |
Mengxi Plant Maintenance |
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Hangjin |
Calcium carbide method |
4 |
Maintenance |
2025 October 20th |
2025 October 30, [year] |
|
Lutai Chemical |
Carbide method |
37 |
10 Monthly Maintenance |
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Inner Mongolia Yili |
Calcium carbide method |
50 |
Planned Maintenance |
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Shandong Xinfang |
Calcium Carbide Method |
75 |
10 End of the month to November maintenance |
Salt Lake Magnesium's facility is back in operation, and Dongcao plans maintenance in October.
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Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart |
Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
Source of data: Longzhong Information |
5. Price Prediction
Macroeconomic expectations have been underperforming, and abnormal fluctuations in supply and demand in the black sector have slightly affected market prices. Overall, support has weakened. The PVC spot market remains stalemated; supply decreased during the week due to maintenance, while demand has not continuously improved. Export sentiment remains cautious, and price competition poses resistance. Inventory accumulation in the industry has continued to slow down during the week. In the short term, spot supply and demand remain stalemated, and the impact of macroeconomic expectations is diminishing. PVC is expected to maintain a weak oscillation within a range. It is forecasted that the East China region's calcium carbide-based five-type cash warehouse price will be in the range of 4680-4850 RMB/ton.
6. Related Products
Calcium carbide ： The mainstream trading price of calcium carbide in the Wuhai region has been increased by 50 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton.
Ethylene The estimated CFR China price for ethylene at ports is around $840-860/ton. Due to tight supply, market prices continue to rise. 。
7. Data Calendar
Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview
|
Data |
Release Date |
Previous data |
Trend Forecast |
|
PVC utilization rate |
Thursday 5:30 PM |
79.94% |
↘ |
|
Weekly PVC Production |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
47.88 |
↘ |
|
PVC production enterprise factory inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
See data terminal |
↗ |
|
PVC Third-Party Social Inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
93.42 |
↗ |
|
Export Volume of PVC Manufacturing Enterprises |
Friday 12:00 AM |
See data terminal |
↘ |
|
PVC downstream product enterprises' operating rate |
Friday 5:00 PM |
View data terminal |
↗ |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information Remarks: 1. Consider significant fluctuations as large swings, highlighting data dimensions with a change exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ is regarded as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with price changes within 0-3%. |
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