[PVC Daily Review] Supply and Demand Expectations Fall Short, PVC Fluctuates and Pulls Back Intraday

1. Today's Summary

Domestic PVC manufacturers have reduced the ex-factory price by 30-120 yuan/ton.

② In the short term, the number of enterprises undergoing maintenance has rapidly decreased, and the market supply is expected to increase quickly.

③. The Politburo meeting has once again reaffirmed its determination to combat "involution": advancing capacity management in several key industries, with the PPI expected to rebound in the second half of the year.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's cash ex-warehouse price of acetylene-based PVC type 5 in East China is 4,920 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market price focus fluctuated and declined. Without policy or macro expectations support, the market price returned to the fundamentals. During the week, upstream PVC supply steadily increased, demand improvement was limited, industry inventory continued to accumulate for more than five weeks, and spot prices were under pressure. In East China, the acetylene process five-type spot price ranged from 4,820 to 5,000 yuan/ton, while the ethylene process held steady at 4,950 to 5,200 yuan/ton.

3、 The basis between futures and spot prices

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/ton)

From the perspective of the basis, the PVC basis for the September contract in the East China region is in the range of -60 to -160, while the January contract is in the range of -180 to -240.

4、 Production Dynamics

Formosa Plastics Taiwan Mailiao Plant plans maintenance in mid to late August. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Source of data: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5、Price forecast

From a fundamental perspective, next week the maintenance intensity of domestic PVC producers is expected to ease, with the scale of new maintenance being lower than that of plant restarts and new production. Output will continue to recover, while domestic demand remains in the off-season. New export orders are limited by weak off-season demand and policy impacts from India. Industry inventories are expected to continue accumulating, putting pressure on spot prices. Considering the lack of short-term policy stimulus, the spot market is expected to fluctuate downward. The expected price for East China acetylene-based PVC type 5, cash ex-warehouse, is 4,750-4,900 yuan/ton.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The domestic calcium carbide market is exploring lower positions, with the mainstream trade price in the Wuhai region at 2150-2200 yuan/ton. The diversion of supporting calcium carbide to external sales is impacting the market. 。

Ethylene ： Asian Market CFR Northeast Asia 820 USD/ton stable, CFR Southeast Asia 830 USD/ton stable 。

7、Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview