[PVC Daily Review] Spot Trading Remains Stalemated, PVC Edges Up Intraday

1. Today's Summary

① Domestic PVC manufacturers have individually raised ex-factory prices by 50 yuan per ton.

②. There are currently no new enterprise maintenance plans being added.

Focus on key areas and weak links; structural monetary policy tools will continue to exert force.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's cash settlement price for calcium carbide grade five in East China is 4,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market prices remain firm, driven up during the day by sentiment in the black sector. Spot trading atmosphere is flat, with no short-term improvement in the fundamentals. The acetylene-based spot price on a cash basis in East China is 4,880-5,000 yuan/ton, while the ethylene-based price is 4,850-5,150 yuan/ton.

3、 Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Major Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

From the perspective of basis, the PVC basis for the September contract in East China is in the range of -60 to -180, while the January contract is in the range of -180 to -240.

4、 Production Dynamics

Table 3   PVC Maintenance Device Summary Table

Formosa Plastics' Mailiao plant in Taiwan plans maintenance in mid to late August. 。

Figure 4 Domestic PVC Maintenance Losses and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5、Price Forecast

The domestic PVC fundamentals have not improved recently, with fewer maintenance activities at upstream production enterprises combined with new additions, leading to a significant increase in market supply month-on-month. Meanwhile, domestic demand remains stable, and foreign trade exports are mainly focused on fulfilling existing orders. The supply-demand contradiction has intensified, with industry inventory expected to accumulate significantly, putting pressure on the market. On the macroeconomic front, the market prices have seen a slight increase driven by factors such as coke in the black sector, but there has been no impact on costs and other factors. In the short term, the market fundamentals remain under pressure from supply and demand, with spot prices experiencing weak fluctuations. Macro sentiment during trading hours can easily interfere with market trends. It is expected that the East China region's calcium carbide method for type 5 cash-on-delivery warehouse pick-up will be priced at 4,800-4,950 yuan/ton.

6、 Related Products

Calcium carbide ： The domestic calcium carbide market supply is tightening, with mainstream trade prices quoted at 2300 yuan/ton in Wuhai and Ningxia regions. 。

Ethylene ： Asian market ethylene prices show insufficient upward momentum, remaining stable recently. CFR Northeast Asia 820 USD/ton CFR Southeast Asia 830 USD/ton 。

7、Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview