Domestic PVC manufacturers have adjusted their ex-factory prices, with fluctuations concentrated between 30-80 yuan/ton; the spot SG-5 prices in various regions mostly remain stable, with only slight increases observed in Tianjin and Chengdu.
The maintenance lineup is substantial, with Yili, LG, and Salt Lake Magnesium Industries continuing to halt operations, while Sanyou's facility is on a scheduled break. Hengtong Chemical has partially resumed production, and the maintenance plans for Formosa Plastics and Ordos have been implemented, resulting in limited overall supply increase.
Overseas orders in the broader aluminum industry have surged and exports have increased significantly, but this has not provided any noticeable spillover support to the PVC industry. PVC exports themselves remain under pressure, while downstream products are in the traditional off-season, with demand follow-through remaining weak.
Carbide prices have stabilized at a low level, providing bottom support. Overseas ethylene prices have edged down slightly. Weekly operating rates and output are expected to rise modestly, and both plant inventories and social inventories are being reduced simultaneously. However, downstream operating rates are weakening, and the loose supply-demand pattern is unlikely to change.
(I) Regional spot prices showed mixed gains and losses.
In East China, SG-5 in Changzhou and Hangzhou remained stable at RMB 4,560/ton; in South China, Guangzhou held steady at RMB 4,700/ton, while Zibo stayed unchanged at RMB 4,570/ton. Tianjin edged up by RMB 10 to RMB 4,650/ton, and Chengdu rose by RMB 20 to RMB 4,620/ton. Overall, the East China benchmark for calcium carbide process Type-5 ex-warehouse stood at RMB 4,560/ton, with the market halting its decline and stabilizing.
Intraday market sentiment was strong at first and then weakened. In the morning, supported by positive news of maintenance shutdowns, sellers tested slight price increases. However, off-season demand was insufficient to support the price rise, and negotiations turned quieter in the afternoon, with most actual transactions concluded at lower prices. In East China, mainstream calcium carbide-based PVC prices were in the range of RMB 4,520–4,650/mt, while ethylene-based cargoes were at RMB 4,800–5,000/mt. The price spread between high- and low-grade products remained stable. Large-volume orders were scarce, with transactions mostly consisting of scattered small orders for rigid demand.
(II) The futures-spot basis remained stable.
The East China September contract spot-futures basis remained unchanged at -150 yuan. In the actual market, the basis traded in the range of -140 to -220 yuan. Spot prices remained relatively weak compared with futures, and fluctuations in the futures market found it difficult to drive a trend-like rise or fall in spot prices, indicating weak spot-futures linkage.
Long-term idled units in the industry still show no signs of restarting, with Wuhai Chemical, Jinchuan Xinrong, and Cangzhou Julong remaining idle. Maintenance at Elion, LG, and Qinghai Salt Lake Magnesium continues, while Tangshan Sanyou is implementing rotational shutdowns. The positive incremental change comes from Hengtong Chemical partially resuming operations over the weekend. Going forward, Formosa Plastics Ningbo, Erdos, Xinjiang Yihua, Inner Mongolia Yihua, and others will successively enter maintenance cycles, with expectations of a phased supply contraction.
Overall industry operating rates are recovering slowly. Capacity utilization and expected weekly output are both edging up slightly this week; producer inventories and social inventories are both expected to decline. However, downstream product operating rates are also weakening, making the destocking pace relatively slow, and overall inventory levels remain on the high side.
Upstream and downstream raw material market trends
Wuhai calcium carbide remained stable at 2,150 yuan/ton, with a firm cost floor that limits the room for any sharp decline. Overseas ethylene prices weakened, with CFR Northeast Asia at USD 920 and CFR Southeast Asia at USD 935, both declining. Cost pressure for ethylene-based production eased slightly, but ethylene-based supply accounts for only a limited share of the market and is unlikely to reverse the overall trend.
IV. Market Sentiment and Current Supply-Demand Conditions
The overall supply and demand show a pattern of gradually increasing supply and weak demand. Downstream pipes, profiles, and packaging products have entered the off-season, leading to conservative purchasing. The overseas market is similarly experiencing an off-season compounded by fluctuations in shipping costs, resulting in a projected decline in PVC exports. Although maintenance has led to a temporary reduction in output and a slight decrease in inventory, weak demand remains the core issue. Market participants are mainly selling along with market trends, showing insufficient willingness to actively raise prices.
1. Short-term Overall Market Forecast
In the short term, PVC is expected to remain in a weak range-bound fluctuation.
Supporting factors: Multiple units remain under continuous maintenance, and the upcoming maintenance schedule is intensive, limiting any increase in supply; calcium carbide prices have stabilized, providing strong support at the cost floor; plant inventories and social inventories are expected to decline slightly, with no risk of large-scale inventory buildup.
Suppressive factors: Downstream product production decreases during the off-season, and terminal demand is insufficient; export conditions are under pressure, and competition from low-priced overseas sources intensifies; overall supply and demand are loose, lacking substantial positive drivers, resulting in a lack of upward momentum.
In East China, carbide-route SG-5 is mostly trading at RMB 4,520–4,680/ton, with relatively limited fluctuations; South China and North China are tracking range-bound movements, while the ethylene-route is also undergoing a slight consolidation, and the price spread remains stable.
If calcium carbide prices rise sharply, production costs will increase, driving spot prices to edge up slightly; if units undergoing centralized maintenance resume operations ahead of schedule, a surge in supply will intensify downward pressure; a recovery in downstream product operating rates may create a temporary opportunity for stabilization. This article is for fundamental analysis only and does not constitute trading or investment advice.
【Copyright and Disclaimer】This article is the property of PlastMatch. For business cooperation, media interviews, article reprints, or suggestions, please call the PlastMatch customer service hotline at +86-18030158354 or via email at service@zhuansushijie.com. The information and data provided by PlastMatch are for reference only and do not constitute direct advice for client decision-making. Any decisions made by clients based on such information and data, and all resulting direct or indirect losses and legal consequences, shall be borne by the clients themselves and are unrelated to PlastMatch. Unauthorized reprinting is strictly prohibited.
