[PVC Daily Review] Limited Midday Boost, PVC Spot Transactions Steady and Dull
1. Today's Summary
Some domestic PVC manufacturers have reduced their ex-factory prices by 10-100 yuan/ton.
The maintenance recovery of Yili and Jinyuyuan facilities has been delayed, and the Xinfeng facility is undergoing cyclic maintenance, while Hangjin is under maintenance. 。
"Expand domestic demand, increase vitality, and improve the environment; achieve fruitful results in deepening reforms during the 14th Five-Year Plan."
2 Spot Overview
Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's cash price for calcium carbide using the five-type method in the East China region is 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. 。
The domestic PVC spot market prices remained stable, with some slight fluctuations during the day. The atmosphere for terminal inquiries and transactions was sluggish, and there was no improvement in market supply and demand. The market was driven upward by expectations of supply changes in upstream black and other bulk commodities. In East China, the cash price for acetylene-based PVC was between 4570-4680 yuan/ton, while the ethylene-based PVC ranged from 4700-4900 yuan/ton, with high-end prices slightly declining.
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Figure 1 Domestic PVC Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton) |
Figure 2 Domestic PVC Prices in Various Regions (Unit: yuan/ton) |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
Data Source: Longzhong Information |
3、 Spot-Futures Basis
Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (CNY/ton)
|
Region |
Previous trading day |
Today |
Rise and fall |
Month-on-month |
|
East China (Contract 01) |
-60 |
-60 |
0 |
0% |
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Data source: Longzhong Information |
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The PVC basis for the 01 contract in the East China region is in the range of -20/-100, and the basis has not been adjusted yet, with market transactions at a fixed price.
4、 Production Status
Table 3 PVC Maintenance List of Equipment
|
Company Name |
Craftsmanship |
Production capacity (10,000 tons) |
Note |
Device Change |
Recovery Plan |
| Shandong Dongyue |
Carbide method |
13 |
Parking |
March 25, 2023 |
To be determined |
|
Wuhai Chemical |
Calcium carbide process |
40 |
Parking |
July 23, 2023 |
Pending |
|
Jinchuan Xinrong |
Calcium Carbide Process |
20 |
Parking |
July 12, 2023 |
Pending |
|
Cangzhou Julong |
Ethylene method |
52 |
Parking |
September 20, 2024 |
Pending |
|
Suzhou Huasu |
Ethylene method |
13 |
Parking |
April 26, 2025 |
Pending |
| Inner Mongolia Yili |
Carbide method |
50 |
Planned maintenance |
September 30, 2025 |
October 25, 2025 |
| Shanxi Ruiheng |
Calcium carbide method |
40 |
Maintenance for one week |
October 16, 2025 | October 22, 2025 |
|
Jin Yuyuan |
Calcium carbide process |
40 |
New Plant Maintenance |
October 12, 2025 |
October 23, 2025 |
|
Inner Mongolia Junzheng |
Carbide method |
36 |
Mongxi Plant Maintenance |
October 10, 2025 |
October 21, 2025 |
|
Turpan |
Carbide method |
20 |
Maintenance |
October 15, 2025 |
October 21, 2025 |
|
Aviation Jin |
Carbide method |
4 |
Maintenance |
October 20, 2025 |
October 30, 2025 |
|
Lutai Chemical |
Carbide method |
37 |
October Maintenance |
October 12, 2025 | October 20, 2025 |
|
Xinjiang Tianye |
Calcium carbide method |
20 |
Tian Neng Second Factory, formerly Tianyu New Reality |
October 10, 2025 |
October 18, 2025 |
|
Xinjiang Tianye |
Carbide method |
50 |
Tian Neng Factory Area |
October 21, 2025 |
October 30, 2025 |
|
Shandong Xinfa |
Calcium carbide method |
75 |
Phase II maintenance first, then Phase I maintenance. |
October 13, 2025 | November 3, 2025 |
|
Henan Lianchuang |
Calcium carbide method |
40 |
November Maintenance |
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Shandong Hengtong |
Ethylene method |
30 |
Overhaul |
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Hanwha Ningbo |
Ethylene process |
40 |
December Annual Maintenance |
No new enterprise maintenance plans available. 。
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Figure 4: Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart |
Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price |
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Data source: Longzhong Information |
Data Source: Longzhong Information |
5、Price prediction
In the short term, as upstream maintenance of PVC is gradually completed, the future market supply volume is expected to rise again to a high level, with weekly average production expected to approach 500,000 tons. Additionally, new facilities are gradually commencing trial production within the month and increasing output. In the face of growing upstream supply, domestic market demand remains stable, while northern demand is expected to weaken due to climate impacts. However, exports are expected to remain favorable this month. Overall, the pressure from future supply slightly exceeds demand, putting pressure on the spot price center. On the macro level, short-term performance is suboptimal, with price ranges stabilizing only under the support of expected costs for black varieties. The cash-on-delivery warehouse price for carbide-based Type V in East China is between 4,550 and 4,700 yuan per ton.
6、Related Products
Calcium carbide ： DomesticThe mainstream trading price in the Wuhai area is quoted at 2450 yuan/ton, and the calcium carbide market has recently stabilized. 。
Ethylene ： The CFR China price for port ethylene is in the range of $760-790/ton, with the market negotiation focus leaning towards the weaker side. 。
7、Data Calendar
Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview
|
Data |
Publication Date |
Previous Data |
Trend forecast |
|
PVC utilization rate |
Thursday 5:30 PM |
76.69% |
↗ |
|
PVC Weekly Production |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
46.74 |
↗ |
|
PVC production enterprise factory inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
View data terminal |
↗ |
|
PVC Third-Party Social Inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
103.38 |
↗ |
|
PVC Production Enterprise Export Volume |
Friday 12:00 AM |
View data terminal |
↘ |
|
PVC downstream product enterprise operating rate |
Friday 5:00 PM |
See data terminal |
↗ |
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Data source: Longzhong Information Note: 1. Consider a significant fluctuation as a large rise or fall, highlighting data dimensions with a change exceeding 3%. 2. Treat as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with price changes within 0-3%. |
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