[PVC Daily Review] Limited Midday Boost, PVC Spot Transactions Steady and Dull

1. Today's Summary

Some domestic PVC manufacturers have reduced their ex-factory prices by 10-100 yuan/ton.

The maintenance recovery of Yili and Jinyuyuan facilities has been delayed, and the Xinfeng facility is undergoing cyclic maintenance, while Hangjin is under maintenance. 。

"Expand domestic demand, increase vitality, and improve the environment; achieve fruitful results in deepening reforms during the 14th Five-Year Plan."

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Changzhou market in East China, today's cash price for calcium carbide using the five-type method in the East China region is 4,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market prices remained stable, with some slight fluctuations during the day. The atmosphere for terminal inquiries and transactions was sluggish, and there was no improvement in market supply and demand. The market was driven upward by expectations of supply changes in upstream black and other bulk commodities. In East China, the cash price for acetylene-based PVC was between 4570-4680 yuan/ton, while the ethylene-based PVC ranged from 4700-4900 yuan/ton, with high-end prices slightly declining.

3、 Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (CNY/ton)

The PVC basis for the 01 contract in the East China region is in the range of -20/-100, and the basis has not been adjusted yet, with market transactions at a fixed price.

4、 Production Status

Table 3   PVC Maintenance List of Equipment  

No new enterprise maintenance plans available. 。

Figure 4: Domestic PVC Maintenance Loss and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5、Price prediction

In the short term, as upstream maintenance of PVC is gradually completed, the future market supply volume is expected to rise again to a high level, with weekly average production expected to approach 500,000 tons. Additionally, new facilities are gradually commencing trial production within the month and increasing output. In the face of growing upstream supply, domestic market demand remains stable, while northern demand is expected to weaken due to climate impacts. However, exports are expected to remain favorable this month. Overall, the pressure from future supply slightly exceeds demand, putting pressure on the spot price center. On the macro level, short-term performance is suboptimal, with price ranges stabilizing only under the support of expected costs for black varieties. The cash-on-delivery warehouse price for carbide-based Type V in East China is between 4,550 and 4,700 yuan per ton.

6、Related Products

Calcium carbide ： DomesticThe mainstream trading price in the Wuhai area is quoted at 2450 yuan/ton, and the calcium carbide market has recently stabilized. 。

Ethylene ： The CFR China price for port ethylene is in the range of $760-790/ton, with the market negotiation focus leaning towards the weaker side. 。

7、Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview