[PVC Daily Review] Insufficient Support for Expectations, PVC Weakly Fluctuates

1. Today's Summary

① Domestic PVC manufacturers' ex-factory prices are generally stable, with a few slight decreases.

②、 Zhong Jia,Huayi plant resumes operations, while Zhenyang, Formosa Plastics Ningbo, and Huatai facilities undergo maintenance. 。

③. The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is heating up, leading commodities are likely to rise with the momentum. 。

2 Spot Overview

Using the East China Changzhou market as a benchmark, today the spot cash pickup price for carbide-based PVC type 5 in East China is 4,710 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. 。

The domestic PVC spot market fluctuated downward, with the decline in the black sector leading to a weaker sentiment in related markets. Coupled with the high level of supply in the PVC spot market and the lack of highlights in both domestic and foreign trade demand, spot market transaction prices were adjusted downward during the day. The atmosphere for low-price transactions improved, with the cash-on-delivery price for carbide-based PVC type five in East China at 4700-4820 yuan/ton and ethylene-based PVC at 4850-5100 yuan/ton.

3. Spot-Futures Basis

Table 2 Major Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/ton)

The PVC basis for the January contract in the East China region is between -160 and -280, with today's market mainly transacting at low price points.

4. Production Update

Table 3   PVC Inspection Equipment List

Formosa Plastics' Mailiao Plant in Taiwan will resume chlor-alkali, vinyl chloride, and PVC units in early September. 。

Figure 4: Domestic PVC Maintenance Losses and Price Linkage Trend Chart	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization and Price
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

The supply-demand contradiction in upstream sectors such as the black series has weakened in expectations, causing intraday prices to fluctuate lower and dragging down sentiment in related sectors. In the short term, there is no relevant impact on the PVC industry and sector. Intraday prices are fluctuating downward due to the weak supply and demand fundamentals. As plant maintenance comes to an end, PVC supply is expected to recover, domestic demand remains stable, while foreign trade export demand is mainly in a wait-and-see mode due to uncertain policies. Stronger costs provide some support at the bottom. Overall, the domestic PVC spot market is expected to continue a weak adjustment within a certain range in the short term.It is expected that the spot price for calcium carbide produced by the electric arc furnace method of five types in the East China region will be in the range of 4650-4800 yuan per ton.

6. Related Products

Calcium carbide The mainstream trade price in the Wuhai region remains stable at 2,350 yuan/ton. 。

Ethylene ： CFR Northeast Asia $840/ton, CFR Southeast Asia $830/ton, regional market supply slightly tight. 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview