[PVC Daily Review] Insufficient Support for Expectations, PVC Weakly Fluctuates
1. Today's Summary
① Domestic PVC manufacturers' ex-factory prices are generally stable, with a few slight decreases.
②、 Zhong Jia,Huayi plant resumes operations, while Zhenyang, Formosa Plastics Ningbo, and Huatai facilities undergo maintenance. 。
③. The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is heating up, leading commodities are likely to rise with the momentum. 。
2 Spot Overview
Using the East China Changzhou market as a benchmark, today the spot cash pickup price for carbide-based PVC type 5 in East China is 4,710 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. 。
The domestic PVC spot market fluctuated downward, with the decline in the black sector leading to a weaker sentiment in related markets. Coupled with the high level of supply in the PVC spot market and the lack of highlights in both domestic and foreign trade demand, spot market transaction prices were adjusted downward during the day. The atmosphere for low-price transactions improved, with the cash-on-delivery price for carbide-based PVC type five in East China at 4700-4820 yuan/ton and ethylene-based PVC at 4850-5100 yuan/ton.
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Figure 1 Domestic PVC Price Trend (Unit: RMB/ton) |
Figure 2 Domestic PVC Prices in Various Regions (Unit: RMB/ton) |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
Data Source: Longzhong Information |
![[PVC日评]：供需维持双弱 V盘中震荡下行（20250819）](https://oss.plastmatch.com/zx/image/f93216715a5b47cbbfb7524efe25cf93.png "[PVC日评]：供需维持双弱 V盘中震荡下行（20250819）")
![[PVC日评]：供需维持双弱 V盘中震荡下行（20250819）](https://oss.plastmatch.com/zx/image/b09736bed5954434bc2502469677116d.png "[PVC日评]：供需维持双弱 V盘中震荡下行（20250819）")
3. Spot-Futures Basis
Table 2 Major Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/ton)
|
Region |
The previous trading day |
Today |
Rise and fall |
Month-on-month |
|
East China (Contract 01) |
-220 |
-220 |
0 |
0% |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
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The PVC basis for the January contract in the East China region is between -160 and -280, with today's market mainly transacting at low price points.
4. Production Update
Table 3 PVC Inspection Equipment List
|
Company Name |
Process |
Production Capacity (10,000 tons) |
Note |
Device Change |
Recovery Plan |
|
Taishan Salt Chemical |
Calcium carbide method |
10 |
Parking |
2022 September 29th |
To be determined |
|
Shandong Dongyue |
Calcium carbide process |
13 |
Parking |
2023 March 25 |
To be determined |
|
Wuhai Chemical |
Calcium carbide method |
40 |
Parking |
2023 July 23rd |
To be determined |
|
Gansu Xinrong |
Calcium Carbide Method |
20 |
Parking |
2023 July 12, [Year] |
Pending |
|
Cangzhou Julong |
Ethylene Method |
52 |
Parking |
2024 September 20, [year] |
To be determined |
|
Suzhou Huasu |
Ethylene process |
13 |
Parking |
2025 April 26, [year] |
To be determined |
|
Gansu Yinguang |
Calcium carbide method |
13 |
Maintenance |
2025 July 27, (year) |
2025 August 19th |
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Ordos |
Calcium carbide method |
40 |
Second-phase maintenance |
2025 August 8th |
2025 August 20th of the year |
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Guangxi Huayi |
Ethylene process |
40 |
Temporary Maintenance |
2025 August 18th |
August 27 |
|
Ethylene method |
30 |
Temporary parking |
August 19, 2025 | Early September | |
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New Middle Jia |
Calcium carbide method |
30 |
Maintenance for 10-15 days |
2025 August 15th |
2025 August 27, Year |
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Inner Mongolia Junzheng |
Calcium Carbide Method |
34 |
Wuda plant maintenance for ten days on the 16th, Mengxi in September. |
2025 August 16th |
2025 August 26, Year |
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Sino-Thai |
Calcium carbide method |
83 |
Huatai 19-29 maintenance for 6 days |
2025 August 19th |
2025 August 29 |
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Sea level |
Calcium carbide method |
40 |
8 Maintenance from the end of the month to early September for 7-10 days. |
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Formosa Plastics Ningbo |
Ethylene process |
40 |
Annual Maintenance |
2025 August 24, [Year] |
2025 September 2nd |
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China and Thailand |
Calcium carbide method |
55 |
Saint Xiong will undergo maintenance for 10 days in early September. |
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Taizhou Liancheng |
Ethylene process |
60 |
Annual maintenance, to be determined |
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Northern Yuan of Shaanxi |
Calcium carbide method |
110 |
Shift rotation |
2025 September 10, 2014 |
2025 September 22, 2024 |
Formosa Plastics' Mailiao Plant in Taiwan will resume chlor-alkali, vinyl chloride, and PVC units in early September. 。
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Figure 4: Domestic PVC Maintenance Losses and Price Linkage Trend Chart |
Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization and Price |
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![[PVC日评]：供需维持双弱 V盘中震荡下行（20250819）](https://oss.plastmatch.com/zx/image/2be145f7170c42b79873dc54af4bdbaf.png "[PVC日评]：供需维持双弱 V盘中震荡下行（20250819）") |
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Data source: Longzhong Information |
Data Source: Longzhong Information |
![[PVC日评]：供需维持双弱 V盘中震荡下行（20250819）](https://oss.plastmatch.com/zx/image/81b1e5de7931418399d2d06cff72b761.png "[PVC日评]：供需维持双弱 V盘中震荡下行（20250819）")
5. Price Forecast
The supply-demand contradiction in upstream sectors such as the black series has weakened in expectations, causing intraday prices to fluctuate lower and dragging down sentiment in related sectors. In the short term, there is no relevant impact on the PVC industry and sector. Intraday prices are fluctuating downward due to the weak supply and demand fundamentals. As plant maintenance comes to an end, PVC supply is expected to recover, domestic demand remains stable, while foreign trade export demand is mainly in a wait-and-see mode due to uncertain policies. Stronger costs provide some support at the bottom. Overall, the domestic PVC spot market is expected to continue a weak adjustment within a certain range in the short term.It is expected that the spot price for calcium carbide produced by the electric arc furnace method of five types in the East China region will be in the range of 4650-4800 yuan per ton.
6. Related Products
Calcium carbide The mainstream trade price in the Wuhai region remains stable at 2,350 yuan/ton. 。
Ethylene ： CFR Northeast Asia $840/ton, CFR Southeast Asia $830/ton, regional market supply slightly tight. 。
7. Data Calendar
Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview
|
Data |
Release Date |
Previous data |
Trend Forecast |
|
PVC utilization rate |
Thursday 5:30 PM |
77.61% |
↗ |
|
PVC Weekly Production |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
46.48 |
↗ |
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PVC Production Enterprise Factory and Warehouse Inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
View data terminal |
↗ |
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PVC Third-party Social Inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
85.27 |
↗ |
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PVC Production Enterprise Export Volume |
Friday 12:00 AM |
See data terminal |
↘ |
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Operating rate of downstream PVC products enterprises |
Friday 5:00 PM |
View Data Terminal |
↗ |
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Source of data: Longzhong Information Note: 1. ↓↑ are considered significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ is regarded as narrow fluctuation, highlighting data with price changes within 0-3%. |
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