[PVC Daily Review] End-of-Month Stocking Demand Remains Flat, PVC Transactions Slightly Insufficient

1. Today's Summary

Domestic PVC production enterprises have generally stabilized their ex-factory prices, with a few adjusting downward by 20-30 yuan/ton.

2. Yili is resuming operations, while Xinfa, Hangjin, and Tianye have some units under maintenance. 。

The global financial markets are set to a "Super Central Bank Week," as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada will all announce their interest rate decisions this week.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the East China Changzhou market, the spot warehouse price for Type 5 acetylene method PVC in East China is 4,600 yuan/ton today, stabilizing compared to the previous trading day. 。

At the beginning of the week, the domestic PVC spot market remained weak and stable, with participants mostly observing in the morning. During the day, prices fluctuated as they sought lower transaction levels, and in the afternoon, the black segment rose, leading to slight price fluctuations in PVC. However, the trading atmosphere remained subdued. In East China, the cash price for carbide-based PVC was 4570-4680 yuan/ton, while the ethylene-based PVC was priced at 4700-4900 yuan/ton.

3. Futures-Spot Basis

Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)

The PVC basis for the January contract in the East China region is in the range of -20/-120.

Figure 3 Basis Trend of PVC in East China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information

4. Production Update

Table 3   PVC Maintenance Equipment List  

There are no new enterprise maintenance plans. 。

Figure 4: Trend Chart of Domestic PVC Maintenance Losses and Price Linkage	Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Price Forecast

During the week, the supply and demand fundamentals for PVC remained weak. At the end of the month, the stocking demand from downstream terminals remained flat, and the supply is expected to slightly increase, putting pressure on industry inventories. The black sector strengthened in the afternoon, driving expectations for industrial costs. Industry expectations are not performing well, providing limited support to the spot market. In the short term, under the pressure of supply and demand fundamentals, the market maintains small range fluctuations. In East China, the price for carbide-based type 5 cash on delivery is between 4,550-4,700 yuan/ton.

6. Related Products

Calcium carbide ： DomesticThe mainstream trade price in the Wuhai region is quoted at 2,500 yuan/ton, with strong cost support in the calcium carbide market. 。

Ethylene ： Port EthyleneCFR Northeast Asia is $765/ton, down $15/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is $755/ton, down $15/ton; ethylene method costs are weakening. 。

7. Data Calendar

Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview