[PVC Daily Review] End-of-Month Stocking Demand Remains Flat, PVC Transactions Slightly Insufficient
1. Today's Summary
Domestic PVC production enterprises have generally stabilized their ex-factory prices, with a few adjusting downward by 20-30 yuan/ton.
2. Yili is resuming operations, while Xinfa, Hangjin, and Tianye have some units under maintenance. 。
The global financial markets are set to a "Super Central Bank Week," as the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada will all announce their interest rate decisions this week.
2 Spot Overview
Based on the East China Changzhou market, the spot warehouse price for Type 5 acetylene method PVC in East China is 4,600 yuan/ton today, stabilizing compared to the previous trading day. 。
At the beginning of the week, the domestic PVC spot market remained weak and stable, with participants mostly observing in the morning. During the day, prices fluctuated as they sought lower transaction levels, and in the afternoon, the black segment rose, leading to slight price fluctuations in PVC. However, the trading atmosphere remained subdued. In East China, the cash price for carbide-based PVC was 4570-4680 yuan/ton, while the ethylene-based PVC was priced at 4700-4900 yuan/ton.
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Figure 1 Domestic PVC Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton) |
Figure 2 Domestic PVC Price Trend Chart by Region (Unit: Yuan/Ton) |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
Data Source: Longzhong Information |
3. Futures-Spot Basis
Table 2 Main Delivery Location Basis (Yuan/Ton)
|
Region |
Previous trading day |
Today |
Rise and Fall |
Month-on-month |
|
East China (Contract 01) |
-60 |
-60 |
0 |
0% |
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Data source: Longzhong Information |
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The PVC basis for the January contract in the East China region is in the range of -20/-120.
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Figure 3 Basis Trend of PVC in East China (Unit: Yuan/Ton) |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information |
4. Production Update
Table 3 PVC Maintenance Equipment List
|
Company Name |
Craftsmanship |
Capacity, ten thousand tons |
Remarks |
Device Change |
Recovery Plan |
| Shandong Dongyue |
Calcium carbide process |
13 |
Parking |
March 25, 2023 |
Pending |
|
Wuhai Chemical |
Calcium carbide process |
40 |
Parking |
July 23, 2023 |
Pending |
|
Jinchuan Xinrong |
Calcium carbide method |
20 |
Parking |
July 12, 2023 |
Pending |
|
Cangzhou Julong |
Ethylene method |
52 |
Parking |
September 20, 2024 |
Pending |
|
Suzhou Huasu |
Ethylene method |
13 |
Parking |
April 26, 2025 |
Pending |
| Inner Mongolia Yili |
Carbide method |
50 |
Maintenance |
September 30, 2025 |
October 25, 2025 |
| Shanxi Ruiheng |
Carbide method |
40 |
Maintenance for one week |
October 16, 2025 | October 22, 2025 |
|
Jin Yuyuan |
Calcium carbide method |
40 |
New plant maintenance |
October 12, 2025 |
October 23, 2025 |
|
Inner Mongolia Junzheng |
Calcium carbide method |
36 |
Mengxi Plant Maintenance |
October 10, 2025 |
October 21, 2025 |
|
Tuokexun |
Carbide method |
20 |
Maintenance |
October 15, 2025 |
October 21, 2025 |
|
Hangjin |
Calcium carbide method |
4 |
Maintenance |
October 20, 2025 |
October 30, 2025 |
|
Lutai Chemical |
Calcium carbide method |
37 |
October Maintenance |
October 12, 2025 | October 20, 2025 |
|
Xinjiang Tianye |
Carbide method |
20 |
Tian Neng Second Factory, originally Tian Yu New Reality |
October 10, 2025 |
October 18, 2025 |
|
Xinjiang Tianye |
Carbide method |
50 |
TianNeng Factory Area |
October 21, 2025 |
October 30, 2025 |
|
Shandong Xinfa |
Calcium carbide method |
75 |
Repair the second phase first, then repair the first phase. |
October 13, 2025 | November 3, 2025 |
|
Henan Lianchuang |
Calcium carbide method |
40 |
November maintenance |
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Shandong Hengtong |
Ethylene method |
30 |
Overhaul |
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Hanwha Ningbo |
Ethylene method |
40 |
December Annual Maintenance |
There are no new enterprise maintenance plans. 。
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Figure 4: Trend Chart of Domestic PVC Maintenance Losses and Price Linkage |
Figure 5 Comparison of PVC Capacity Utilization Rate and Price |
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Data source: Longzhong Information |
Data Source: Longzhong Information |
5. Price Forecast
During the week, the supply and demand fundamentals for PVC remained weak. At the end of the month, the stocking demand from downstream terminals remained flat, and the supply is expected to slightly increase, putting pressure on industry inventories. The black sector strengthened in the afternoon, driving expectations for industrial costs. Industry expectations are not performing well, providing limited support to the spot market. In the short term, under the pressure of supply and demand fundamentals, the market maintains small range fluctuations. In East China, the price for carbide-based type 5 cash on delivery is between 4,550-4,700 yuan/ton.
6. Related Products
Calcium carbide ： DomesticThe mainstream trade price in the Wuhai region is quoted at 2,500 yuan/ton, with strong cost support in the calcium carbide market. 。
Ethylene ： Port EthyleneCFR Northeast Asia is $765/ton, down $15/ton; CFR Southeast Asia is $755/ton, down $15/ton; ethylene method costs are weakening. 。
7. Data Calendar
Table 4 PVC Data Calendar Overview
|
Data |
Release Date |
Previous Data |
Trend Forecast |
|
PVC utilization rate |
Thursday 5:30 PM |
76.57% |
↗ |
|
PVC Weekly Production |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
46.66 |
↗ |
|
PVC production enterprise factory inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
See data terminal |
↗ |
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PVC Third-Party Social Inventory |
Thursday 5:00 PM |
103.52 |
↗ |
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PVC production enterprise export volume |
Friday 12:00 AM |
See data terminal |
↘ |
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Operating rate of PVC downstream product enterprises |
Friday 5:00 PM |
See data terminal |
↗ |
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Data Source: Longzhong Information Note: 1. Treat ↓↑ as significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions where the price change exceeds 3%. 2. Consider narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a price change within 0-3%. |
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