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[pp weekly outlook] short-term market seeks new balance between high costs and weak demand

Longzhong 2025-07-28 08:44:58

I. Points of Attention

1 、 7/25: Although market concerns about U.S. tariffs have somewhat diminished, some poor economic data has made traders cautious, causing international oil prices to fall. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.87 to $65.16 per barrel, a decrease of 1.32% compared to the previous period. ICE Brent crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.74 to $68.44 per barrel, a decrease of 1.07% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2509 rose by 4.3 to 508.6 yuan per barrel, while in the night session it fell by 6.7 to 501.9 yuan per barrel. 。

2 On July 25, the price of propylene FOB Korea was 740 USD/ton, and CFR China was 770 USD/ton.

3 This week's (20250718-0724) domestic polypropylene The average operating rate of downstream industries decreased by 0.15 percentage points from last week to 48.37%.

Core Logic: Macroeconomic sentiment boosts market sentiment, weak valuation on the demand side continues, and the difficulty of passing costs downstream is high.

Product	Category	7 The 24th of the month	7 25th of the month	Change in Value	Unit
Crude oil	NYMEX	65.25	66.03	+0.78	USD / Barrel
Crude oil	ICE Brent oil	68.51	69.18	+0.67	USD / Bucket
Propylene	Domestic propylene	6325	6275	-50	Yuan / Ton
Methanol	Domestic Methanol	2315	2325	+10	Yuan / Ton
PP Main Futures Contract	Closing price	7096	7181	+85	Yuan / Ton
Mainstream price of wire drawing	Zibo	7129	7115	-14	Yuan / Ton
	Ningbo	7114	7130	+16	Yuan / Ton
	Guangzhou	7253	7243	-10	Yuan / Ton
Related Products	PP Powder	6870	6870	0	Yuan / Ton
Related Products	PE	7452	7446	-6	Yuan / Ton
Note:
1 The above RMB prices are all spot exchange rates including taxes.
2 The prices for the two periods are the point prices from the past two work weeks before this week, not the weekly average prices.
3 The percentage change is the month-on-month rate of change.

2. Price Form

Product	Category	7 The 24th of the month	7 25th of the month	Change in Price Percentage	Unit
Crude oil	NYMEX	66.03	65.16	-0.87	USD/barrel
Crude oil	ICE Brent crude oil	69.18	68.44	-0.74	USD/barrel
Propylene	Domestic propylene	6275	6240	-35	CNY/ton
Methanol	Domestic methanol	2325	2325	0	CNY/ton
PP Main futures contract	Closing price	7181	7221	40	Yuan/ton
Mainstream Price of Wire Drawing	Zibo	7115	7150	35	CNY/ton
	Ningbo	7130	7166	36	CNY/ton
	Guangzhou	7243	7268	25	CNY/ton
Related Products	PP Powder	6870	6920	50	CNY/ton
Related Products	PE	7446	7510	64	CNY/ton
Note:
1 The above RMB prices are all inclusive of taxes for spot exchange.
2 The prices for the two periods are the point-in-time prices from the previous two working weeks prior to this week, not the weekly average prices.
3 The rise and fall rate refers to the month-on-month change magnitude.

3. Data Form

4. Market Outlook

The macro-level anti-involution and the policy of eliminating outdated production capacity in the petrochemical industry are driving market speculation sentiment to rise. Due to terminal demand being in a seasonal consumption off-peak period and existing market inventory being higher than expected, the short-term market is seeking a new balance between high costs and weak demand. The positive impact of maintenance and concerns about new capacity expansion are offsetting each other. The market needs to engage in a tug-of-war between supply-demand and macro-level factors. Recently, the market has been following macro guidance and subsequently applying supply-demand logic. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within the range of 7100-7250 yuan/ton today.

5. Data Calendar

Data Project	Publication Date	Previous Data	The trend for this period is expected	Unit
PP Total Inventory	Wednesday 4:30 PM	81.44	↑	10,000 tons
PP Production Enterprise Capacity Utilization Rate	Thursday 4:30 PM	76.96%	↓	%
PP Weekly maintenance impact	Thursday 4:30 PM	16.26	↑	10,000 tons
Total Production of Domestic PP Enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	77.36	↓	10,000 tons
Profit of Oil-based PP Enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	-331.67	↓	Yuan/ton
Coal-based PP Enterprise Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	723.73	↓	yuan/ton
PDH Manufacturing PP Enterprise Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-192.13	↑	CNY/ton
PP Import Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-577.91	↑	CNY/ton
PP Export profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-7.52	↓	USD/ton
1 Consider large fluctuations as significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions with changes exceeding 3%. 2 "Considered as narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise or fall within 0-3%."

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[pp weekly outlook] short-term market seeks new balance between high costs and weak demand

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