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[pp morning briefing] short-term momentum for polypropylene market insufficient

Longzhong 2025-08-13 08:56:36

1 On August 12, the market continued to focus on the meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and Russia, with geopolitical tensions expected to ease further, leading to a drop in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the September contract fell by $0.79 to $63.17 per barrel, a decrease of 1.24% compared to the previous period. ICE Brent crude futures for the October contract fell by $0.51 to $66.12 per barrel, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous period. China's INE crude oil futures for the September 2510 contract rose by 2.5 to 492.6 yuan per barrel, while the night session saw a drop of 1.8 to 490.8 yuan per barrel.

2 On August 12, the propylene FOB Korea price remained at 745 USD/ton, and the CFR China price remained at 780 USD/ton.

3 This week (20250801-0807), the average operating rate of the domestic polypropylene downstream industry increased by 0.50 percentage points compared to last week, reaching 48.90%.

Core logic: Limited market driving forces, polypropylene market remains volatile.

2. Price List Form

Product	Category	8 11th of the month	8 12th of the month	Change in price percentage	Unit
Crude oil	NYMEX	63.96	63.17	-0.79	USD/barrel
Crude oil	ICE Brent crude oil	66.63	66.12	-0.51	USD/barrel
Propylene	Domestic propylene	6540	6565	+25	CNY/ton
Methanol	Domestic methanol	2365	2365	0	CNY/ton
PP Main Futures Contract	Closing Price	7095	7091	-4	CNY/ton
Mainstream price of wire drawing	Zibo	7064	7073	+9	Yuan/ton
	Ningbo	7058	7063	+5	Yuan/ton
	Guangzhou	7191	7193	+2	Yuan/ton
Related Products	PP Powder	6900	6930	+30	CNY/ton
Related Products	PE	7483	7491	+8	CNY/ton
Note:
1 The above RMB prices are all tax-inclusive telegraphic transfer prices.
2 The prices for the two periods are the point-in-time prices from the previous two work weeks before this week, not the weekly average prices.
3 The rise and fall range is the month-on-month change range.

3. Market Outlook

Recently, with the shutdown of units such as Guangdong Petrochemical's production line, Dushanzi's old production line, and Lankong Petrochemical, the impact of shutdowns has increased to 16.15%, temporarily easing supply pressure. After the start of autumn, temperatures have somewhat decreased, leading to improved operations downstream, but the overall market's ability to absorb goods remains weak, and inventory pressure persists. In the short term, the polypropylene market lacks upward momentum, and the mainstream price for East China's raffia is expected to fluctuate around 7000-7150 yuan/ton today.

4. Data Calendar

Data Project	Publication Date	Previous Data	The trend for this period is expected	Unit
PP Total Inventory	Wednesday 4:30 PM	85.66	↑	10,000 tons
PP Production Enterprise Capacity Utilization Rate	Thursday 4:30 PM	77.31%	↑	%
PP Weekly maintenance impact	Thursday 4:30 PM	15.86	↓	10,000 tons
Total Production of Domestic PP Enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	77.71	↑	10,000 tons
Profit of oil-based PP enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	-191.91	↑	CNY/ton
Profit of Coal-to-PP Enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	479.87	↓	CNY/ton
PDH Manufacture PP Enterprise Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-385.52	↓	Yuan/ton
PP Import Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-521.97	↓	CNY/ton
PP Export Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-13.62	↓	USD/ton
1 "Consider significant fluctuations as those with changes exceeding 3%, highlighting data dimensions with such increases or decreases." 2 Considered as narrow fluctuations, highlight data with a rise or fall within 0-3%.

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[pp morning briefing] short-term momentum for polypropylene market insufficient

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