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[PP Daily Review] Weak Demand in Peak Season Fails to Drive the Polypropylene (PP) Market, Decline Continues

Longzhong 2025-09-22 17:10:45

1. Today's Summary

①. Sinopec East China reduced PP by 50-100 yuan/ton. Zhenhai Refining T03 decreased to 7050 yuan/ton, Yangzi F401 decreased to 7050 yuan/ton, Shanghai M800E decreased to 7900 yuan/ton, and Jiujiang T decreased to 6750 yuan/ton.

②. Today's domestic polypropylene shutdown impact decreased by 0.51% from last week to 18.46%. The old 300,000 tons/year unit of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical and the old 200,000 tons/year unit of Shaoxing Sanyuan have been restarted, with an expected daily supply increase of 1,500 tons. The daily production proportion of raffia decreased by 3.94% from last week to 24.48%, mainly due to Jingmen Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year switching to film production, Guoneng Baotou's 300,000 tons/year switching to film production, and Guoneng Xinjiang's 450,000 tons/year switching to thin-wall injection molding, with an expected decrease in raffia production of 2,610 tons/day.

During the period of September 12 to 18, 2025, the supply-demand balance remained in a tight equilibrium, with the supply-demand gap maintaining a negative value and continuing to widen, which somewhat boosted market sentiment. In the next period, the supply-demand balance gap is expected to narrow slightly, which is anticipated to have a somewhat positive impact on prices.

2. Spot Overview

Based on the East China region, today the polypropylene filament price closed at 6,772 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan/ton compared to last week. The national average price for filament has dropped by 27 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, and decreased by 0.39% compared to last week, aligning with the morning expectations.

Today, futures opened flat and fluctuated slightly downward, with market quotations dropping by 20-30 yuan/ton in the morning. The demand side remains stubbornly weak, combined with a significant increase in supply, causing market supply and demand pressure to escalate further. At the end of the month, there is concern about inventory pressure during the National Day holiday, prompting many to actively reduce inventory to mitigate risks. In the short term, there is a tug-of-war between supply-demand dynamics and costs. The market is expected to show weak bearish fluctuations in the near term. As of noon, the mainstream price for wire rod in East China is between 6720-6900 yuan/ton. 。

Figure 1 Domestic Polypropylene Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Tonne)	Figure 2 Domestic Polypropylene Price Trend Chart by Region (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

3. Spot-Futures Basis

In terms of basis, today the polypropylene basis in East China is -123 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week; in North China, the basis is -27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to last week.

Figure 3: Basis Trend in North China Region (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 4: Basis Trend in East China Region (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

4. Production Dynamics

The capacity utilization rate of polypropylene increased from 75.14% last week to 75.96%, up by 0.82% from last week. The old units of CNOOC Daxie Petrochemical with a capacity of 300,000 tons per year and Shaoxing Sanyuan with a capacity of 200,000 tons per year have been restarted, with an expected daily supply increase of 1,500 tons. Oil-based profits decreased by 330 yuan/ton from last week to -794 yuan/ton.

Figure 5 Trend of Domestic Polypropylene Capacity Utilization Rate	Figure 6 Domestic Polypropylene Profit and Price Trend Chart (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

5. Market Sentiment

Downstream demand follow-up is insufficient, and merchants are cautious in shipping from their inventory. On the production side, in order to avoid inventory risks during the National Day holiday, prices have been lowered and stocks reduced in advance to mitigate risks. Downstream factories have limited order follow-up, and merchants are primarily cautious in purchasing based on actual needs.

6. Price Forecast

The significant discrepancy between the rapid increase in supply capacity and the slow pace of demand growth has led to a pronounced surplus of market resources. With cost-side easing and external macroeconomic benefits being consumed in advance, the market is currently at a critical period concerning supply and demand variables, with a key focus on the progress of demand enhancement. Additionally, most downstream factories are halting operations during the National Day holiday, and the market is reducing inventory in advance to avoid stockpile risks during the holiday. Recently, there has been a tug-of-war between supply and demand, and it is expected that the market will experience weak fluctuations around 6,700-6,900 yuan/ton in the short term.

7. Relevant Product Information

Table 2 Summary of Prices for Polypropylene-Related Products (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Market	9 19th of the month	9 22nd of the month	Rise and fall value	Change in value
Shandong Propylene	6625	6535	-90	-1.36%
Shandong Methanol	2450	2410	-40	-1.63%
Linyi PP powder	6750	6710	-40	-0.59%

Data Source: Longzhong Information

8. Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polypropylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Project	Release Date	Last period data	This issue's trend forecast.	Unit
Total PP Inventory	Wednesday 4:30 PM	80.07	↓	ten thousand tons
PP production enterprise capacity utilization rate	Thursday 4:30 PM	0.749	↓	%
PP weekly maintenance impact	Thursday 4:30 PM	18.939	↑	ten thousand tons
Total Domestic PP Production	Thursday 4:30 PM	76.7	↓	Tens of thousands of tons
Profit of oil-based PP enterprises	Thursday 4:30 PM	-481.35	↓	Yuan/ton
Coal-based PP enterprise profits	Thursday 4:30 PM	399.87	↓	Yuan/ton
PDH-based PP enterprise profits	Thursday 4:30 PM	-839.47	↑	Yuan/ton
PP Import Profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-476.02	↑	Yuan/ton
PP export profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-9.66	↓	USD/ton
1. ↓↑ is regarded as significant volatility, highlighting data dimensions where the fluctuation exceeds 3%. 2. ↗↘ are considered narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise or fall within 0-3%.

Data Source: Longzhong Information

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[PP Daily Review] Weak Demand in Peak Season Fails to Drive the Polypropylene (PP) Market, Decline Continues

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