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[PP Daily Review] Up and Down 1-5! Terminal Purchasing Continues with Rigid Demand, Expecting a Narrow Fluctuation in the Polypropylene Market

Longzhong 2025-03-04 17:22:52

1. Today's Summary

① March 4 report: Early morning polyolefin inventory at the two oil companies was 845,000 tons, down 15,000 tons from the previous day.

Today, the domestic polypropylene shutdown impact remains steady at 12.81%, and there are no changes in the domestic PP maintenance devices today. The daily production ratio of drawing wire has decreased by 1.95% from yesterday to 30.81%, while the daily production ratio of low melt co-polymer has increased by 0.84% from yesterday to 12.90%.

③. The supply-demand gap this week (20250222-0228) is 77,020 tons. As downstream demand continues to recover, inventory is being slowly depleted, but supply still shows a growing trend, maintaining a slight surplus in the supply-demand gap.

2. Spot Overview

Taking East China as the benchmark, today's PP granule closing price was 7393 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from yesterday, in line with the early expectation.

Today, the futures market showed weak oscillation during the session. Downstream demand has not shown any significant changes, with purchases mainly limited to essential needs, resulting in only limited increases in orders. Market participants are operating on a follow-the-market basis, and the trading atmosphere within the market is lukewarm. Overall, the spot prices have not fluctuated much. As of the afternoon session, the mainstream price for East China**** (lā sī) was between 7340-7450 yuan per ton. Note: "**** (lā sī)" is typically used in the context of wire drawing or bar stock but lacks direct translation in this financial context. It might refer to a specific type of material or product.

3. Basis

In terms of basis, today the polypropylene basis in East China is 32 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton compared to yesterday; the basis in North China is -27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton compared to yesterday.

4. Production Dynamics

The polypropylene capacity utilization rate rose from 81.17% to 81.90%, an increase of 0.73% compared to yesterday. The main reason is the restart and ramp-up of a 500,000 tons/year PP unit at Guangdong Petrochemical. The oil-based profit increased by 141 yuan/ton to -268 yuan/ton.

5. Market Sentiment

Upstream inventory remains high, with active transfers to intermediate links. Traders mainly follow the market trend in shipments. However, downstream order increments are limited, and trading within the market is subdued. The market anticipates that the Two Sessions will bring macro-favorable policies to boost the market.

6, Price Forecasting

At the beginning of the month, most upstream petrochemical enterprises maintained firm prices for sales. Middlemen adjusted their offers and shipments accordingly, with****transactions in the market. Spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the circulation of market goods was slow. Factories maintained consumption of the industrial chain inventory based on****. It is expected that tomorrow...Polypropylene marketMaintaining a fluctuating range of 7350-7450 yuan per ton, with a focus on demand and inventory changes. As the peak season of "Golden March" approaches, order situations may slightly improve, and on-site trading is expected to show positive trends.

7. Relevant product information

8. Data Calendar

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[PP Daily Review] Up and Down 1-5! Terminal Purchasing Continues with Rigid Demand, Expecting a Narrow Fluctuation in the Polypropylene Market

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