today's summary

Petrochemical East China PP pricing, Zhongan PPH-T03 up 100 to 7300 yuan/ton, An PPH-T03 up 100 to 7400 yuan/ton, Yang 1215C down 50 to 7800 yuan/ton, Shang GM1600E down 50 to 8650 yuan/ton.

②、The impact of domestic polypropylene shutdowns today decreased by 1.03% to 16.51% compared to last week, mainly due to the startup of a 70,000 tons/year line at Dushanzi Petrochemical and a 300,000 tons/year PP unit at Hainan Ethylene, which is expected to increase daily production by 2,220 tons. The daily production ratio of fiber increased by 4.43% to 28.02% compared to last week, mainly due to the startup of the 300,000 tons/year unit at Hainan Ethylene producing fiber, which is expected to reduce daily fiber production by about 1,800 tons.

③、This week (20250307-0314), the supply-demand gap narrowed significantly to 40,000 tons, mainly due to a noticeable decrease in supply caused by increased facility maintenance, coupled with a slow recovery in demand, leading to an improvement in the supply-demand gap.

2, Spot Overview

Table 1 Domestic Polypropylene Price Summary (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information

Using the East China region as a benchmark, today's polypropylene fiber closed at 7351 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton from last week, in line with early expectations.

Futures opened higher and fluctuated today, with the market reporting a shift in focus to 10-50 yuan/ton in the morning. The increase in cost supports the market sentiment, and as demand gradually recovers, low-price offers have risen accordingly. However, due to the impact on export orders, the growth of new downstream orders has slowed, limiting the overall circulation of goods. By midday, the mainstream price for wire drawing in East China was 7280-7430 yuan/ton.

3, futures-spot basis

In terms of basis, the polypropylene basis in East China today is 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan/ton from last Friday; the basis in North China is -18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton from last week.

4, Production Dynamics

Polypropylene capacity utilization rate increased from 76.53% to 77.14%, up 0.61% from last Friday. The main reason is the start-up of a 70,000 tons/year unit at Dushanzi Petrochemical and a 300,000 tons/year ethylene unit in Hainan, resulting in an increase of 2,220 tons in daily production. Oil-based profit margin decreased by -69 yuan/ton to -368 yuan/ton.

5, market sentiment

Downstream factories have insufficient follow-up on new orders, leading to a weak intention to replenish raw materials. Upstream factories face increased pressure to ship, with clear signs of reduced production and load reduction, and rising pressure to reduce inventory. Intermediaries, due to weak demand follow-up, experience increased pressure to ship, resulting in more cautious profit concessions.

6, price prediction

Demand-side weakness continues, with increased tariffs overseas leading to a reduction in export orders for manufactured goods. Supply-side expectations for recent increases remain unchanged, with future market valuation expectations being weak. Frequent short-term maintenance and rising costs are beneficial to market sentiment, as merchants who have been holding low prices for a long time are testing higher offers to confirm transactions. Recently, the market has been in a tug-of-war between supply and demand and costs. It is expected that the short-term polypropylene market will see transaction verification around 7300-7430 yuan/ton, with close attention to the impact of tariff adjustments on downstream product exports, inventory across the industrial chain, and changes in the demand side.