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[pp daily review] slow redemption of peak season demand, polypropylene market fluctuates weakly

Longzhong 2025-09-17 17:27:35

1. Today's Summary

①. Sinopec South China Guangzhou 4220 decreased by 100 to 8300, PPR-200P decreased by 100 to 8500.

②. Today, the domestic polypropylene shutdown impact decreased by 0.51% compared to yesterday to 19.28%. Guoneng Xinjiang's 450,000-ton/year unit is operational, with an expected daily production increase of 1,350 tons. The daily production proportion of raffia increased by 1.16% compared to yesterday, reaching 29.34%.Jingmen Petrochemical120,000 tons per yearMaoming PetrochemicalThree lines with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons.Guoneng Ningxia Coal Line 4The production capacity is 300,000 tons per year, with an expected increase in wire drawing output of 1,800 tons per day.

In section ③, (from September 5, 2025, to September 11, 2025), the current supply-demand balance maintains a pattern of supply being less than demand. The supply-demand gap has shifted from a positive to a negative value, which positively impacts market sentiment. The supply-demand balance gap is expected to remain negative and slightly widen in the next period, which is anticipated to continue having a favorable impact on prices.

2. Spot Overview

Table 1 Summary of Domestic Polypropylene Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information

Based on the East China region as a benchmark, today's polypropylene filament closed at 6817 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. The national average filament price fell by 3 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, a decrease of 0.04%, in line with the morning forecast.

Today, the futures market fluctuated within a range, with morning market quotations maintaining a fluctuation amplitude of -10/10 yuan/ton. The potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has activated capital enthusiasm, and maintenance benefits have alleviated some supply pressure. However, market demand is still recovering slowly. In the short term, the market is still under supply and demand pressure, and cautious selling at a discount is the primary focus. In the short term, there is a tug-of-war between supply-demand and cost. The market is expected to remain weak and volatile in the near term. As of midday, the mainstream price of East China wire drawing is between 6,780-6,950 yuan/ton.

Figure 1 Domestic Polypropylene Price Trend (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 2 Domestic Polypropylene Prices in Various Regions (Unit: RMB/ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

3. Basis between spot and futures

In terms of basis, the polypropylene basis in East China today is -165 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from last week; the basis in North China is -85 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from yesterday.

Figure 3 Basis Trend in North China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)	Figure 4 Basis Trend in East China (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data Source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

4. Production Dynamics

The polypropylene capacity utilization rate increased from 74.96% yesterday to 75.43%, up by 0.47% compared to yesterday.The startup of Guoneng Xinjiang's 450,000-ton/year plant is expected to increase daily production supply by 1,350 tons.The profit from oil refining decreased by 79.49 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, reaching -523.78 yuan/ton.

Figure 5: Domestic Polypropylene Capacity Utilization Rate Trend Chart	Figure 6 Domestic Polypropylene Profit Price Trend Chart (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Data source: Longzhong Information	Data Source: Longzhong Information

5. Market Sentiment

Although crude oil prices have increased, cost support has strengthened.But Market demand follow-up remains insufficient.The market prices are primarily experiencing weak fluctuations. Intermediaries face transaction pressure and are cautiously offering discounts to sell goods. Downstream factories have limited order follow-up, and merchants are prudently purchasing as needed.

6. Price Forecast

In the short term, despite strong maintenance efforts for installations, supply-side pressure remains significant. The growth rate in downstream consumption sectors is slower than expected, exacerbating supply-demand conflicts in the market. Factory order growth is limited, and there is insufficient willingness to stockpile. Participants hold a cautious attitude towards the future market, with prices lacking upward momentum. It is expected that the polypropylene market will fluctuate within the range of 6700-6900 yuan/ton in the short term.

7. Related Product Information

Table 2 Summary of Prices for Polypropylene-related Products (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

Market	9 16th of the month	9 16th of the month	Change in value	Percentage Change
Shandong Propylene	6550	6615	+65	+0.99%
Shandong Methanol	2430	2450	+20	0.82%
Linyi PP powder	6770	6770	0	0.00%

Data source: Longzhong Information

8. Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polypropylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Data Project	Publication Date	Previous Data	The trend for this period is expected	Unit
PP Total Inventory	Wednesday 4:30 PM	83.66	↑	10,000 tons
PP manufacturing enterprises capacity utilization rate	Thursday 4:30 PM	76.83%	↓	%
PP weekly maintenance impact==	Thursday 4:30 PM	16.64	↑	10,000 tons
Total Domestic PP Production	Thursday 4:30 PM	78.67	↓	10,000 tons
Oil-based PP company profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-415.41	↓	CNY/ton
Coal-to-PP enterprise profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	489.2	↑	Yuan/ton
PDH-based PP enterprise profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-882.14	↓	Yuan/ton
PP import profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-488.4	↓	CNY/ton
PP export profit	Thursday 4:30 PM	-5.58	↑	USD/ton
1. ↓↑ are considered significant fluctuations, highlighting data dimensions with a change exceeding 3%. 2. ↗↘ are considered narrow fluctuations, highlighting data with a rise and fall within 0-3%.

Data Source: Longzhong Information

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[pp daily review] slow redemption of peak season demand, polypropylene market fluctuates weakly

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