[pp daily review] demand slowly recovers, polypropylene market fluctuates and consolidates

1 Today's Summary

①、 Sinopec East China PP decreased by 100, with Shanghai E980BHF set at 7700, M700R set at 7500, Zhong'an Y26 set at 7000, An Y26 set at 7000, V30G decreased by 50 to 7000; PetroChina Southwest fiber material, homopolymer injection molding, and thin-wall injection molding decreased by 50.

②、 The domestic polypropylene shutdown impact on daily production ratio decreased by 0.65% compared to yesterday, standing at 15.67%. The daily production ratio for raffia remained stable at 24.48%, while the daily production ratio for low-melt copolymer decreased by 0.94% compared to yesterday, standing at 8.86%.

③、 During the period from August 8 to August 14, 2025, the supply-demand balance maintained a pattern of supply exceeding demand, with the supply-demand gap remaining positive and slightly expanding, which has had an increasingly negative impact on market sentiment. In the next period, the supply-demand surplus is expected to narrow, and the negative impact on prices is expected to ease.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the East China region, today's polypropylene raffia closed at 7,001 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from yesterday. The national average price for raffia decreased by 4 yuan/ton from yesterday, a decline of 0.06%, which is in line with the morning forecast.

This morning, futures fluctuated within a narrow range.Polypropylene MarketThe market is mainly in a narrow range adjustment, with limited guidance from macro policies. Price changes are primarily driven by fundamentals. There is no significant improvement in downstream demand, and merchants are cautiously offering discounts to facilitate transactions, with prices open for negotiation. As of midday, the mainstream price for East China wire drawing stands at 6920-7100 yuan/ton.

3 ======== translates to "futures-spot basis."

From the perspective of basis, today's polypropylene basis in East China is -43 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8 RMB/ton compared to yesterday; the basis in North China is -39 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2 RMB/ton compared to yesterday.

4 Production Dynamics

The polypropylene capacity utilization rate increased from 77.99% to 78.23%, up by 0.24% compared to yesterday. Oil-based profit decreased by 54.48 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, reaching -147.75 yuan/ton.

5 Market sentiment

The inventory of upstream petrochemical companies is shifting to the intermediate sector, demand remains weak, the peak season restocking in September has not yet begun, and order recovery is slow. Intermediaries are primarily focused on actively selling, resulting in cautious trading in the market.

6 Price Prediction

At the macro level, anti-involution and de-capacity policies have boosted market sentiment. However, from the perspective of polypropylene supply, CNOOC's Ningbo Daxie 900,000-ton plant is about to start production, increasing pressure on the supply side. Downstream factories mainly engage in just-in-time procurement, and sporadic orders from end-users are unlikely to provide effective support. The situation of strong supply and weak demand for polypropylene is expected to continue in the short term. Polypropylene Market Fluctuating within the range of 6920-7100 yuan/ton.

7 Relevant product information

Table 2 Summary of Polypropylene-related Product Prices (Unit: Yuan/Ton)

8 Data Calendar

Table 3 Overview of Domestic Polypropylene Data (Unit: 10,000 tons)