[POM Weekly Review] Maintenance Support Limits Market Decline

1. Market Focus This Week

1) The operating load of the petrochemical plant has decreased.

2) The market is in a state of strong anticipation. ；

3) The demand user's takeover mentality is not good. 。

2. Market Analysis for This Week

Domestic POM Market Price Weekly Fluctuation Table

The POM market operated weakly this period. This week, supply-side support increased as the Tangshan Zhonghao POM plant was temporarily shut down and the Xinlianxin POM plant was taken offline for maintenance, leading to an overall tightening of supply. However, sales in various regions have not improved, traders lack confidence in their operations, and some have increased their price concessions, with declines ranging from 50 to 400 yuan/ton. Some products with tight supply have maintained firm offers. Given that end-user factories have sufficient inventory and are resistant to current price levels, most users are adopting a cautious, wait-and-see approach and negotiate orders on a case-by-case basis.

3. Analysis of Market Influencing Factors

1） This week, the POM market continued to weaken, with mainstream grades falling by 200 yuan/ton compared to last week.

2） This week, the operating rate of China's POM industry was 83.63%, down 5.74% from last week.

3） This week, the average domestic POM gross profit is 106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 166 yuan/ton compared to last week.

4. Market forecast for next week

The POM price in the next period is expected to be stable with slight declines. Key points to focus on: 1. Supply side. The Xinlianxin POM plant will undergo maintenance shutdown, while the Tangshan Zhonghao POM plant plans to resume operations. The loss from maintenance will increase, enhancing supply support. 2. Demand side. The inventory digestion at end-user factories is slow, and some users still have resistance, making short-term purchasing interest limited; actual transactions are relatively constrained. 3. Cost side. The upstream raw material methanol is experiencing a narrow decline. Given the continuous reduction in POM profit margins, support is relatively limited. 4. Macro side. It is reported that there will be an increase in low-priced import offers in the future, leading to relatively fierce market price competition and increased transaction pressure.