[POM Daily Review] Spot Circulation Under Pressure, Flexible Transactions in Real Market

1. Today's Summary

①、 The Kaifeng Longyu POM unit was shut down for maintenance on October 9th, planned for around 20 days. 。

The Tianjin Bohua POM unit is scheduled for maintenance shutdown on July 7, with the restart time yet to be determined.

2 Spot Overview

Based on the Yuyao area as a benchmark, today's price for Yuntianhua M90 is 10,800 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the previous period. Today's POM market remains stable with slight fluctuations. The petrochemical plant's ex-factory prices have been reduced by 200-500 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are weak, and traders' sentiment is relatively lacking, making the purchasing and sales atmosphere difficult to describe as optimistic. As of the close, the domestic POM tax-inclusive price in the Yuyao market is 8,100-11,100 RMB/ton, while the cash price in the Dongguan market is 7,300-10,400 RMB/ton.

3 Production Dynamics

This week, the domestic POM capacity utilization rate is at 93.09%, a decrease of 0.98% compared to last week's operation. Tianjin Bohua's 40,000 tons/year POM unit will undergo maintenance shutdown on July 7, and Kaifeng Longyu 4. A 10,000-ton/year POM plant will shut down for maintenance on October 9. This week's maintenance loss has increased. Methanol prices are falling, while POM prices remain stable. As a result, the product's gross profit margin continues to rise, increasing the profit margin by 15 yuan per ton.

Figure 3: Trend of Domestic POM Capacity Utilization Rate in 2024-2025	Figure 4 Comparison of Domestic POM Profits and Prices for 2024-2025 (Yuan/Ton)
Data source: Longzhong Information	Data source: Longzhong Information

4. Price Prediction

Some manufacturers reduced their ex-factory prices during the week, and there is no effective support from the supply side. The market's bearish sentiment has intensified, making traders relatively less motivated. Some offers continue to negotiate for sales, with a range of 100-200 yuan/ton. Given that end-user factories have sufficient stock, users are not actively purchasing. In the short term, the focus remains on depleting inventory through real-time negotiations.Longzhong expects that the domestic POM market will be under pressure and decline in the short term.

5 Related product information:

Methanol:Today's methanol spot price index is 2145.96, down by 11.56. The spot price in Taicang is 2272, down by 25, and the price in North Inner Mongolia is 2052.5, down by 12.5. According to Longzhong's monitoring of prices in 20 major cities, 11 cities have experienced varying degrees of decline, with the decrease ranging from 2.5 to 30 yuan/ton. On Friday, the domestic methanol market overall showed weak performance, with both port and inland markets experiencing different degrees of decline. Commodity futures were generally weak, exerting significant pressure, and methanol futures plummeted during the day, leading to simultaneous declines in the coastal spot market. The near-end basis weakened significantly, and overall trading sentiment was average. Inland production areas continued to actively reduce prices to clear inventory, with long-term contract sellers also actively participating, while buying interest was relatively weak. Currently, the willingness to hold inventory is noticeably weak. Additionally, attention should be paid to the impact of macroeconomic news on commodities.

6 Data Calendar

Table 2 Overview of Domestic POM Data (Unit: Ten Thousand Tons)